As expected/feared, the path of least resistance for bond markets has been that of weakness heading into the long weekend with big news waiting on the other side.  The big news in question is the potential agreement between Greece and its Eurozone creditors.  Generally, this has been traded as a net negative for domestic bond markets (and core European markets for that matter), and the current fear is that a firm agreement would warrant yet more negativity.

So in a situation where markets do the opposite of what bond traders prepare for, it's easier for  traders to sell now and run the risk of needing to buy later.  If they instead held on to bonds now, it would be comparatively harder to sell later, and more costly.

That tradeflow story accounts for a majority of the movement today as there were essentially no relevant headlines.  Both Treasuries and MBS traded narrow, consolidating ranges well within yesterday's ranges until finally breaking out as we crossed into the illiquid final 2 hours of the day.  Most lenders ended up repricing negatively.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-20 : -0-09
FNMA 3.5
104-19 : -0-07
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : -0-04
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6450 : +0.0130
10 YR
2.0450 : +0.0570
30 YR
2.6460 : +0.0680
Pricing as of 2/13/15 4:35PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:46PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Another Incremental Increase in Negative Reprice Risk
3:09PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Slight Increase in Negative Reprice Risk
10:18AM  :  Inconsequential Range Trade, but Not Without Risks

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Kareem Baldwin  :  "guess the market hates love"
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "its only fitting we end the week a little bit more in the red. :)"
Matthew Graham  :  "I don't think it's enough movement to assign any significance or look for causality. It just happened to take MBS to lows."
Scott Valins  :  "stock lever?"
Sergio Szyrko  :  "sheesh..a nice sprinkle of more red to start the long weekend"
Matthew Graham  :  "" path of least resistance (or least risk for traders) would be to sell bonds ahead of the long weekend. It would be easier to get caught up with a surprisingly resilient rally as opposed to being stuck holding bonds that no one wants to buy in the event of a big sell-off to start the week. That's not necessarily destined to happen this afternoon, but if we do see a break from the current, orderly, sideways grind, that's the higher probability break.""
Matthew Graham  :  "see the AM update re: inconsequential sideways drift, waiting on Tuesday, etc."
Sung Kim  :  "correct, it's only a dew tics"
Matthew Graham  :  "Can't really refer to an inside day with "yikes""
Dena Zeman  :  "Yikes what's causing all the red? Mixture of things I assume "
Hugh W. Page  :  "http://mndne.ws/1mSBh99"
Jay Rodriguez  :  "Any chance I can get a link to VA Handbook that states that? I'm GNMA Direct but have an underwriter that disagrees."
John Rodgers  :  "discharge date. "
Jay Rodriguez  :  "VA Question. If borrower has mortgage wrapped up in BK that was discharged 4/2010. Properties were foreclosed upon. Property Profile shows the foreclosed property finally coming out of his name in October of 2014. Is seasoning date for VA based upon BK Discharge date, Foreclosure Date of repossession of home, or the date the deed came out of his name?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 16
0:00 Presidents Day *