So much of 2014 was spent building up to the notion of ECB QE and so much of the first 2 weeks of 2015 was dedicated to fully pricing it in that bond markets seem like they're not sure what to do next.  Either that or the reality of ECB QE is still being digested in the context of January's month-end trading needs and we're about to get another mega-dose of volatility next week.

Either way, 10yr yields have arguably been dead sideways ever since QE became a reality on January 15th.  Thankfully, the sideways range has given us clear technical levels to serve as fence posts. 

2015-1-28 treasuries

The lowest fence post at 1.70 was only visited for the second time yesterday after the FOMC Announcement.   It's anyone's guess as to the motivation (discussed in more detail HERE), but if it's broken any time soon, the broader downtrend remains very real.  The longer it remains unbroken, the more we'd be at risk of seeing current levels turn into a bigger-picture resistance zone.  At the risk of being overly-confident or bullish, that risk doesn't feel especially risky just yet.  My how we've been spoiled by Eurodrama!

Apart from a smattering of European and domestic economic data today, the only other event is the conclusion of the Treasury auction cycle.   The 5yr is at 11:30am today and the 7yr is at 1pm.  They're rarely ever on the same day, so we could see exaggerated preparations and reactions.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
103-03 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
105-14 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
106-30 : +0-00
2 YR
0.5197 : +0.0547
10 YR
1.7480 : +0.0290
30 YR
2.3170 : +0.0290
Pricing as of 1/29/15 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jan 29
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 300 307
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml)* w/e 2.420 2.443
10:00 Pending homes index Dec 104.8
11:30 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 35
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 29