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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (27.1%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (44.2%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.7%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program

MBS ALERT: ANGRY 4.5 COUPON

Posted
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Since the opening post the tide has turned and we are witnessing some selling in the FN 4.5s....

Fn 4.0-> -0-01+ to 101-05+          

Fn 4.5-> -0-07 to 102-12       

Fn 5.0-> -0-01+  to 103-10          

Fn 5.5-> +0-01 to 103-21+            

Fn 6.0-> +0-03 to 103-29+    

As might be expected on the first day of a roll with a much-speculated NFP report, volatility is high.  There's no telling how lenders will respond to this, but the safer bet for your shortest term deals is to assume reprices for the worse will be coming.  HOWEVER, the losses we are seeing (which may well recover), are perfectly acceptable by way of paying "admission" to be able to say what rates will do later next week.

Data provided by Thomson Reuters
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on
Adam, Please clarify, again, how you read the price? It looks like the 4.0 is UP one tick but your saying it is selling off. (4.0-> +0-01 + to 101-05+)...there are 3 + signs in the reading and your saying that the coupon is down???? Thanks a bunch for clarifying. David
on
Well Daivd you are right to be confused...that was a typo!!! I have since corrected. Sorry about the error....
on
no worries--i am just trying to keep up.
on
For sometime we've heard rates will/SHOULD go down from these levels once the roll is complete next week. But what levels are we talking about now? Rates have adjusted up since we first starting hearing this. As for levels; is it the current rate sheet level s(last 1-2 days), the levels we saw 1-2 weeks ago or the lows we've previously seen? SInce a lot of focus has been placed on this, it would be very helpful to define the rate level we should see drops from rather then just using the broad term levels. I'd hate to see a "Cramer Moment" happen here in the MND: A moment where a general prediction is made for a period of time and at some point in time it works out but ends up being more of a negative then a positive. And "Cramer" jumps up and down saying how right he was. For this instance: rates continue to rise the next several days and then sometime next week we see a small dip in rates (from these current elevated levels of roughly 5.00% par, rather then the levels of 2 weeks ago) and get the "I told you so" because we dip from 5.00% rather then going below the 4.50%-4.625% levels we've seen as little as 2 weeks ago.
on
In a normal market we should be seeing a .25% worsening on the sheets. But instead everyone just opens the day .50% worse and about .625%-1.00% worse than last Friday and MBS has improved 2% this week. It's maddening.
on
Having played the stock market for a while, I generally noticed that friday almost always seemed to be a day for selling off (at least the stocks I we're playing with), maybe it's easier to sell on a friday so there are no expected surprises of news that would occur over the weekend.
on
I'm relatively new to the site and yes, "Addicted!" From what I understand 4.5 coupon is more closely tied to 30 year rates is this the same for FHA 30 year? Any help would be appreciated...
on
Rates suck this monring..ugh hopefully we can recover the next week...I need to lock a purchase next week..