Think of all those times that we began discussing FOMC events days, weeks, and even months in advance.  Indeed there may be no other greater market mover, on average, over the years.  How then is today the first time this round of FOMC Minutes is coming up?

It's so simple!  In fact, it wouldn't even be coming up if I wasn't interested in using the fact that it hasn't yet come up as a piece of evidence for the shift in market focus!  In other words, it hasn't come up because Fed policy eventualities are boring compared to the high drama embroiling the Eurozone economy and monetary policy response.

So the Fed's going to hike around the middle of 2015...  Who cares?!  Short term rates are already well on their way toward accounting for said rate hike, and what's the fallout been for the longer end of the curve and MBS?  Oh, they're at the best levels since May 2013?  You don't say... Now, find someone on TV or mass media website saying the Fed rate hike will hurt mortgage rates, look squarely in their direction, place your fists on your hips, tilt your head back, and laugh in that overdone, old-timey sort of way.

No, no one much cares about Fed policy right now.  Maybe they hike a bit sooner or later.  Maybe inflation tanks and they don't hike in 2015.  None of it really matters to longer term rates at the moment.  10yr yields, and the massive swath of fixed-income markets they speak to, are far more interested in Europe's death spiral.

On that note, the most interesting economic data of the day may be the Eurozone CPI reading out at 5am (meaning it's likely already out by the time you read this).  The year-over-year reading stood at +0.3% last month and is forecast to fall to 0.0 today.  

2014-1-6 EZ CPI

If that hasn't already set the tone for the day, there's the ADP employment data at 8:15am, which seems like it can't help but have less of an impact than normal given the fact that we already know payroll creation is doing fine.  Again, this market isn't trading US economic data at the moment.  It's not that it won't cause any movement at all--simply that chances are higher for that movement to be muted relative to historical averages.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
102-19 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
105-08 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
107-08 : +0-00
2 YR
0.6170 : -0.0120
10 YR
1.9400 : +0.0020
30 YR
2.5050 : +0.0060
Pricing as of 1/7/15 4:48AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jan 07
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 363.1
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Dec 226 208
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl)* Nov -42.0 -43.4
14:00 FOMC Minutes *