Heading into Christmas, US bond markets began pulling away from European markets in a mostly unfavorable way.  In other words, Treasuries and MBS were losing ground while European bond markets weren't. 

The nature of year-end trading suggests that we don't read too much into such weirdness as it's rarely ever backed up by true trading conviction.  Instead, late December tends to be more serendipitous and early January--all things being equal--tends to see a reversal/correction of the serendipity.  It's generally the same story with the Thanksgiving holiday, and it happened the same way this time.

The 'new year reversal' wasted no time in getting underway last Friday.  With today's improved liquidity, it continued in full effect.  The chart below shows how Treasuries haven't even come close to catching up with European bond markets, but the zoomed in and rescaled view shows how today's outperformance gets them one step closer.

2015-1-5 tsy bund

MBS, as usual, are following the path set by Treasuries, but as usual, on a smaller scale. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-01 : +0-14
FNMA 3.5
104-29 : +0-10
FNMA 4.0
107-02 : +0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6610 : -0.0076
10 YR
2.0440 : -0.0700
30 YR
2.6200 : -0.0695
Pricing as of 1/5/15 12:55PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:46AM  :  Technical Support and Overseas Data Lead to Early Gains

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Christopher Stevens  :  "Fed's Williams: 'Turbulence' likely if Fed tightens while ECB, BoJ increases stimulus"
Hugh W. Page  :  "That one, yes"
Matthew Graham  :  "the one where the 2-3 hawks say "we should raise rates sooner" and Yellen says "quiet, you!""
Hugh W. Page  :  "Don't you think the "discussion" is happening before that....."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SAN FRANCISCO FED CHIEF WILLIAMS SAYS STILL SEES INTEREST RATE HIKE DISCUSSION TO HAPPEN IN MID-2015"
Kenneth Crute  :  "nice way to start off the week rate sheet .625 better "
Matthew Graham  :  "it already is JS"
John Sheadel  :  "How close do you think the 3.0 is to becoming the more predominant indicator? "
John Sheadel  :  "Here's to the "first" day of the New Year. "
Matt Hodges  :  "great day ahead/week ahead/three weeks ahead. a must read for all of us."
Matthew Graham  :  "
A new 'Day Ahead' has been issued:
New Year Wastes no Time; Highly-Charged Calendar of Events"