With the increased amount of data on today's calendar, we've seen increased volatility, but it hasn't been too threatening so far.  In fact, bond markets are currently in positive territory day-over-day despite GDP coming in much stronger than expected this morning (and well-rounded to boot!).

The easiest offsetting factor to point to would be the Consumer Confidence data, which came in much weaker than expected.  Upon closer examination, however, we find that the 10am Confidence data didn't really have much of an impact on domestic bond market momentum.  Treasuries and MBS were already bouncing back from post-GDP weakness and with the exception of a few minutes of volatility, are still at the same levels seen right before the data.

So there must be a third variable at work here, and when we look for third variables in the morning hours, looking East tends to be the most reliable bet.  That is indeed the case again this morning as core European bond markets broke recent resistance and moved to their lowest levels since mid October.  A pronounced bounce in German Bunds around 9:06am correlates with a similar bounce in Treasuries where stocks and currencies do not, leaving us with the clear sense that this morning's domestic bond market resilience owes much to Europe.

2014-11-25 bunds 2

2014-11-25 Germany vs US


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-15 : +0-03
FNMA 3.5
103-25 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-17 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5310 : +0.0340
10 YR
2.2940 : -0.0110
30 YR
3.0020 : -0.0155
Pricing as of 11/25/14 12:32PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
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9:33AM  :  Bond Markets Shrug Off Big Beat in GDP

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Dennis Oleesky  :  "have go towards insurance or additional taxes. "
Matt Hodges  :  "it's the same loan size"
dustin mcalister  :  "most investors like wells don't like big principal reductions, don't see how they would like that...i would email the rlc"
Matt Hodges  :  "VA question - the VA is okay with excess lender credits paying portion of down payment on a jumbo, correct?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US 1-YEAR CONSUMER INFLATION RATE EXPECTATIONS 5.2 PCT IN NOV VS OCT REVISED 5.3 PCT (PREVIOUS 5.4) - CONFERENCE BOARD"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS INDEX 87.0 IN NOV VS OCT REVISED 93.8 (PREVIOUS 95.0) - CONFERENCE BOARD"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US NOVEMBER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 88.7 (CONSENSUS 96.0) VS OCTOBER REVISED 94.1 (PREVIOUS 94.5) - CONFERENCE BOARD"
Matthew Graham  :  "Not seeing any overt "yeah buts""
Victor Burek  :  "another solid report"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US Q3 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE CUTS 0.12 PERCENTAGE POINT FROM GDP CHANGE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US PRELIM Q3 GDP DEFLATOR +1.4 PCT (CONS +1.3 PCT), PREV +1.3 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US PRELIM Q3 GDP +3.9 PCT (CONSENSUS +3.3 PCT), PREV +3.5 PCT; FINAL SALES +4.1 PCT (CONS +2.5 PCT), PREV +4.2 PCT"