Bond markets traded an "inside day" today, meaning that the entirety of today's trading ranges in MBS and Treasuries fell "inside" the highs and lows set by yesterday's range. This isn't immediately apparent on the Treasury charts because yesterday's lowest levels occurred during the overnight session.
Back to the point though: this is what markets do when they're circling the wagons to attend to bigger business ahead. That's not too much of a stretch to believe considering there wasn't much on the calendar today compared to the relatively more important events arriving over the next 3 days.
Initial overnight strength came courtesy of downgraded European growth forecasts, but tradeflows shifted negatively for a few hours in the morning. This wasn't enough to go any material damage and lenders even managed to avoid negative reprices. Bonds bounced back toward the day's best levels, conservatively shied away from breaking them and languished sideways to slightly weaker into the close (but not weak enough to move into negative territory. Bottom line: we ended up essentially unchanged and right in line with the long term inflection point in 10yr yields in the mid 2.3's.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
| MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-29 : +0-02 | FNMA 3.5 103-09 : +0-01 | FNMA 4.0 106-04 : +0-01 |
| Treasuries | 2 YR 0.5180 : +0.0010 | 10 YR 2.3350 : -0.0110 | 30 YR 3.0490 : -0.0180 |
| Pricing as of 11/4/14 4:59PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
3:13PM : ALERT ISSUED: On the Edge of Negative Reprice Territory
9:38AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Weaken Heading Into Stock Open; Small, Specific Reprice Risk
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Matthew Graham : "And here's where that 50% statistic came from: RTRS- REUTERS POLL-MEDIAN 50 PCT CHANCE THE ECB WILL PURCHASE SOVEREIGN DEBT IN COMING YEAR (40 PCT IN OCT 13 POLL)"
Andrew Horowitz : "yeah but none of those 50% of economists are German"
Matthew Graham : "When they start talking about (and now, actually buying) ABS, it changes the dialogue. It used to be that the ESM was viewed as the end-game. Then the OMT was an incremental (albeit very slight) improvement. Then the more recent TLTRO and ABS buying plan, flanked by the white papers earlier this year suggesting balance sheet expansion goals of €1 trillion. It's almost as if Draghi is thuggishly chipping away at Tuetonic recalcitrance. Now, about 50% of economists think he can ultimately make them crack on sovereign debt buys. That's pretty significant compared to previous courts of popular opinion. Even if they're wrong, they're still helping for strategy for firms that are trading upon these potentialities. "
Matthew Graham : "I think markets have believed that for a long time, but would entertain that the ECB could do something with their burden of proof."
Hugh W. Page : "Don't you think that markets are starting to believe the ECB is impotent with respect to their ability to jumpstart growth and inflation in the EU?"
Matthew Graham : "I think the ECB's level of importance is always a bit more enigmatic. NFP reaction is pretty cut and dry. In general, I think ECB is the bigger market mover, but that doesn't necessarily mean the reaction will be focused on the Announcement day itself. "
Jeff Anderson : "I'd think so, AP, unless NFP comes in over 300k."
Andy Pada, Jr. : "we care more about ECB than NFP?"
Matthew Graham : "equities at 11:30 ET, bonds at 1pm"
Andy Pada, Jr. : "when does Europe close again? "
Matt Hodges : "good call mg - Kroll gives you many options on the rescore"
Matthew Graham : "I don't know. Is that an option in the "what-if" simulator drop-down menu?"
Daniel Kramer : "credit question, is there any difference in scoring for a credit line being listed as settleed versus satisifed?"
Sung Kim : "anyone seeing prequals pick up substantially over the past 10 days?"
MBS Market Alerts
