10yr yields dropped a precipitous 10bps yesterday.  While this isn't much compared to some of the more volatile days of the past 6 years, it's one of the most abrupt moves lower in the past few years.  It's strength is all the more impressive in that it comes after nearly two weeks of moderate improvements. 

But is this much of a rally a good thing?  First of all, yes.  It accomplishes the primary goal of breaking 10yr yields definitively back under 2.50--something we had yet to be totally convinced about.

Second of all, no...  From a pure day-to-day standpoint, such a strong rally brings about the rapid maturation of technical levels and leaves us at risk for at least a token bounce back.

2014-10-1 techs

All that having been said, technicals are definitely not the only game in town at the moment.  Today's biggest potential market mover will be the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and the ensuing press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi.  Apart from that, any major movement in equities could get bonds' attention yet again.  Stocks and bonds have been super best friends ever since the 9/17 FOMC Announcement.

2014-10-1 rotation


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-11 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
102-28 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : +0-00
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5160 : -0.0037
10 YR
2.4090 : +0.0200
30 YR
3.1270 : +0.0300
Pricing as of 10/2/14 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 02
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 297 293
9:45 ISM-New York index * Sep 648.0
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Aug -9.3 10.5