Bond markets did their best last week. After hitting the year's best levels in late May, nothing else has really happened, or even stood the chance to happen. Last week's events marked the first decent opportunity to break the rut.
At first, it looked hopeful--for breaking the rut, that is. It was anything but hopeful for trading levels as the stronger-than-expected GDP threatened to push rates over recent highs. But MBS and Treasuries found their footing just in time. Help came late in the week from a weak-ish jobs report and weak European markets (which continue to act like a wet blanket on aspirations for higher rates in the US).
The net effect was an ironic return to the same territory in which the week began. Bigger picture though, the implication is that rates remain stuck in the same old range--pushed higher by all the "stuff" you'd expect, but weighed down by the European wild-card. These two opposing forces can be approximated fairly well by the 100-day moving average above and the mid 2.4's below.
It's not a good idea to put stock in either of these lines as having any sort of predictive power about the future. Rather, their best use is to act as trip-wires that let us know "something new" is happening. So although we've had a few close calls here and there, for the most part, "nothing new" continues to be the thesis for nearly all of 2014.
That said, the two ends of this range are now so close together (because the upper end continues to fall), that yields will simply have to choose soon. Whenever that break comes, it will be more meaningful if accompanied by a big event or even simply a big day of trading. As far as this week is concerned, nothing on the economic calendar has the street-cred to play such a role, so the duty would fall to something 'unscheduled.' The only possible exception is the European Central Bank announcement on Thursday morning (7:45am ET).
Join Now or Login to Post Comments