Fannie 3.5 MBS are heading out the door nearly half a point better at 102-09. 10yr yields are down 6bps at 2.498. While they didn't quite make it to the 2.47 technical level, the move from 2.57 yesterday to 2.48 at today's lows is close enough for government work. The other option in the event of a sell-off was to move up to the 2.66 technical level.
For a while this morning, it looked like that might be a risk. 10yr yields were as high as 2.5907 before NFP came out weaker than expected. Even after the data helped bond markets recover, they didn't seem all too convinced and twice returned to nearly unchanged levels by 10am.
From that point on, however, rates improved steadily and forcefully into the European close. European markets continue to drag US rates lower than they otherwise might be. The move was unified with global stock markets joining bond yields in heading to the day's lows.
Once Europe was done, it was as if the weight was lifted off US markets. Both stocks and bonds immediately and calmly rebounded in the other direction. The bounce back never materialized into anything too threatening for MBS/Treasuries and the only reprices of the day were of the positive variety during and after the mid-day rally.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
98-13 : +0-15
102-09 : +0-14
105-16 : +0-12
| Treasuries || |
0.4763 : -0.0627
2.4962 : -0.0618
3.2839 : -0.0291
| Pricing as of 8/1/14 4:22PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
2:19PM : EU Trading is Definitely a Consideration for US Bond Markets Today
1:57PM : Still Much Stronger on the Day, but Off Highs; Some Risk That We've Topped Out
11:11AM : Bond Markets Hit Best Levels on Dodged Bullets and EU Help
10:11AM : Stronger ISM Manufacturing Data Trips up Bond Markets, but Only Temporarily
8:45AM : Bond Markets Move Into Positive Territory After NFP; Could be Better, Could be Worse
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Matthew Graham : "I hope they are. How many times so far have we seen this same dynamic where EU markets close and US markets embark on a new/different move? I don't know, but "a lot" for sure. "
John Tassios : "EU probably in play for TSY's the rest of the year MG in my opinion. EU not getting any better soon "
Matthew Graham : "EU definitely in play for bond markets today"
Sung Kim : "dax down 2%+"
Sung Kim : "cnbc mentioned euro troubles as it relates to russian sanctions"
Andy Pada, Jr. : "right where we were last Friday. "
Hugh W. Page : "Hard to believe we are 3 tics better than where we opened on Monday on the 3.5. "
Matthew Graham : "but again... you will certainly hear mainstream financial media giving this a lot of dark-horse credit today."
Matthew Graham : "The connection between the currency moves and headlines is clear, and it's also clear that Treasuries were marching to the beat of their own drum way before Argentina-related moves"
Matthew Graham : "after careful consideration, my take on this is that it will get decent play time in the news, but isn't the motivation for the rally. I base this on a fairly careful examination of how Argentine pesos have moved relative to headlines and Treasuries. "
Steve Sims : "Friday bond surges are so hot right now :)"
Andy Pada, Jr. : "what an interesting day."