Next week is a big one. ADP/GDP/FOMC all hit on Wednesday. Month-End is on Thursday, and NFP is on Friday. There are other top-tier reports as well, and a Treasury auction cycle, but the named peril is more than enough evidence for the big potential.
This round of GDP seems extra special, because it follows a first quarter reading that was extra special in its own way. There's a lot going on here with respect to GDP, and we'll talk more about it next week, but the point for this week is that markets bellied right up to the long-term bar well in advance of the data that will likely determine whether or not they stay there.
By "the bar," I mean the longer term range boundary for 10yr yields in the mid 2.4's (call it 2.47, 2.44, whatever...). If they did indeed arrive a bit early, it's courtesy of geopolitical risk and the exceptionally low rates in European bond markets. Treasuries are, of course, allowed to underperform Europe, but there's always some supplementary effect where investors will shift to US debt if European debt outperforms too much.
In this sense, the magnitude of the rally could have been "too much, too soon," even if by only a few days. This could be why we're seeing a potential bounce in the mainstream technicals (bollinger bands, stochastics, MACD, and RSI from top to bottom in the following chart).
The bummer here is that unless Treasuries catch a big break today, they're not likely to re-test the lower 2.4's before next week. As such, we'd basically be drifting somewhere between flat and weaker until at least Wednesday. That means any decision to float is really about Wednesday-Friday, and rates could go higher between now and then only to go much higher on Wednesday.
Of course they could go lower as well, but when we're weighing our options, it's nicer if we don't have to consider the best case scenario against a worse case scenario that easily classifies as "insult to injury." Those are the scarier kind. Bottom line: it would have been nicer to be gradually descending toward the long term range boundary by early next week as opposed to bouncing off of it on the Thursday before.
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