On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends.  For instance, rates were sideways to slightly higher in February and March, then moved convincingly lower in April and May. 

June was technically higher, but with a strong mid-month ceiling and end-of-month improvements.  Now the first few days in July threaten to combine with June's slight weakness and form the 3rd distinct trend of the year.

2014-7-5 tsy trends

There won't be much to inform trend formation this week as the only significant events are the several Fed speeches that dot the calendar as well as the Minutes from the most recent policy meeting.  Even then, Fed policy isn't hotly debated at the moment, and the last meeting/announcement didn't elicit much of a reaction. 

When domestic markets are short on inspiration, overseas markets can have a bigger impact.  European bond markets in particular have been important to the US rate outlook so far this year--probably doing more than anything else to keep rising rates in check.  That said, Treasuries have shown an increased willingness to widen their gap to German Bunds (the EU's 10yr benchmark).  The first few days of July saw the gap at it's widest since the 1990's (before the Euro currency was even adopted by many member states).

2014-7-5 tsy bunds

There's no predictive implication here--simply something to keep in mind.  The two implied conclusions are as follows:

1. To whatever extent rates in the Eurozone stay depressed, it will likely continue to prevent any runaway spike in US rates.

2. To whatever extent rates in the Eurozone are able to bounce, US rates will likely be happy to do the same.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
97-27 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
102-02 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
105-14 : +0-00
2 YR
0.5238 : +0.0118
10 YR
2.6356 : -0.0124
30 YR
3.4558 : -0.0272
Pricing as of 7/7/14 7:32AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 08
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 27
Wednesday, Jul 09
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 347.3
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
14:00 FOMC Minutes *
Thursday, Jul 10
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 315 315
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) May 0.6 1.1
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*