MBS RECAP: MBS Close Near Best Levels; Sell-Off Was Manageable Considering The Data
There's not much left to be said or concluded in terms of today's events (because it's a short day, and there simply hasn't been much time between now and the MBS Mid-Day). Bond markets took an understandably big hit after the 288k vs 212k Nonfarm Payrolls print, and then began a steady march back toward lighter losses. MBS specifically stumbled in the early afternoon, but recovered into the close.
On the surface, ending the day a mere 1/8th of a point lower in price seems like a 'win' in light of the data. If we're only talking about today's day-over-day movement, it is indeed a win.
But the move was in the works for days--all part of the "new quarter" trading momentum as well as the increasing body of evidence supporting a stronger payrolls number.
That evidence reached an apex yesterday with the big ADP beat. It's not that ADP = NFP, simply that it rounded out a collection of other June employment data, all pointing to--at the very least--a slightly stronger reading.
That made for an outsized reaction to a report that's been getting less and less important in 2014. What we were really seeing was an attempt to get ahead of what then looked to be a forecast that was probably too low. Today's tame reaction proves that.
Note: Markets are closed tomorrow for Independence Day
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-27 : -0-03
102-02 : -0-04
105-15 : -0-04
| Treasuries || |
0.5119 : +0.0239
2.6411 : +0.0131
3.4703 : +0.0023
| Pricing as of 7/3/14 3:23PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:24AM : European Bond Markets Helping Treasuries/MBS Recover
9:06AM : Bond Markets hit Weakest Levels since Early May After NFP; Mostly Holding Ground Now
8:31AM : ALERT ISSUED: For Those With Overnight Price Protection...
MBS Live Chat Highlights
: "If you are referring to the UST Sung, all you need is MND's study guide found here http://mndne.ws/1gJuOzB"
Sung Kim : "anyone know what's the best website to practice for the current LO exams?"
Sung Kim : "just need a recert of value after 4 months"
Sung Kim : "on another note, as I was perusing the FNMA selling guide, and this actually answers a conversation that was had in here about 1 month ago - you can use the same appraisal on a subsequent transaction if the original appraisal is withing 12 months and the lender is the same on both transactions"
Matthew Graham : "Yes MH. Also, I think the numbers always matter less and less the closer an economic cycle gets to stabilizing. Of course, not everyone agrees that things are rosy in this economic cycle, but more so than they were when these numbers were kicking off huge moves. Finally, there's just less volatility overall. The QE effect has been like a vice grip, clamped down on the trading range in the big picture."
Matt Hodges : "i suspect traders are slowly putting less emphasis on ADP and BLS than they have in the past and looking at real data."
Matthew Graham : "related for sure, but probably not exclusive. US markets were the bigger mover at 10am"
Sung Kim : "I concur with hodges... so euro related MG?"
Matt Hodges : "nice recap from this morning, MG"