Thursday approaches, bringing with it a glut of significant economic data, an ECB Announcement, and an early close in observance of Independence Day. As if by design, benchmark 10yr yields find themselves right on the lower edge of the predominant 2014 range--also the upper edge of the "rally ranges" seen in late May and late June.
Now, it could certainly be the case that markets are tuned out enough that pondering longer-term range boundaries is much ado about nothing on this holiday-shortened week. In fact, that's a distinct possibility! But it's no fun and less safe to assume markets will be uneventful.
So we'll focus on the more interesting conclusion which is the next two days help decide whether rates remain in the "rally range" or head back into the 2.57+ range seen for most of 2014. The points at which yields would likely pause for reflection are 2.66 on the upside and 2.51 on the downside. 2.47 is arguably just as valid, but not pictured in the chart below to give some credit to 2.51 for fighting back the end-of-June rally.
Today's event calendar is light with only ADP Employment in the morning and a Yellen speech in the afternoon standing as upper-tier potential market movers. Keep in mind that ADP has lost much of its luster so far this year, by doing a relatively poor job of getting inside the crazy mind of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (purveyors of Nonfarm Payrolls). Nonetheless, ADP can always have an impact if it's far enough from consensus. Yellen's speech is at 11am ET at an IMF Central Banking Conference.
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