One of the biggest stories of the past 3 months has been the big miss in first quarter GDP followed by a big downward revision leaving growth at -1.0%. Wednesday brings the 3rd and final reading on Q1--now forecast to be down nearly 2.0%. While some of the initial weakness may be attributed to weather and additional weakness to changes in inventories, this big a move from the initial forecast (which was close to 0.0) is a big deal. Wednesday's final reading will be closely watched.
The rest of the week's data are no slouches. That's a good thing considering we've been without a trend in bond markets for longer than any other time this year. The chart below shows blocks of time (in days) that 10yr yields have traded sideways after ending a more directional move higher or lower.
Today's top contender in terms of market movers that might challenge the range is Existing Home Sales at 10am. It's not a consistent source of inspiration for bond markets, but housing is a bit more interesting than normal at the moment (largely because it's not doing as well as most thought it would be in 2014). With that in mind, the bigger risk is for a stronger-than-expected result. The current forecast is for a moderate improvement from last month--itself the first moderate improvement of the year.
After today, the week's Treasury auction cycle begins (2, 5, 7yr notes at 1pm on Tue, Wed, Thu respectively). Friday is quiet, with only Consumer Sentiment (which doesn't look like it's a market mover in 2014). Everything else is fairly well-packed. Tuesday brings the rest of the housing data as well as Consumer Confidence. Wednesday is GDP and Durable Goods, and thursday is Jobless Claims and Incomes/Outlays (effectively "Consumer Spending").
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