First thing's first. "Boring" isn't necessarily bad when rates are staying fairly close to their lowest levels in a year. That said, could the past few days be any more boring relative to their potential?
Not by much...
If traders wanted to take nearly the entire month of June off and set a water-drinky bird to peck the "buy" button when 10yr yields hit 2.66 and the "sell" button at 2.57, with randomness in between, it would be very hard for us to tell. 10yr yields, once again, approached the upper reaches of that range this morning, hitting 2.659 before bouncing sharply back to more central levels.
MBS were less stressed-out, and didn't even break yesterday's lows while Treasuries pushed beyond their weakest levels. We can likely chalk this up to Treasury-specific tradeflows relating to options/futures expirations today.
Fortunately, the failure to break the range deprives the selling pressure of it's ability to generate a momentum move, thus allowing those tradeflows to find more balance. In other words, morning weakness pushed the lead domino until it leaned, but not enough to knock it over. We could get more concerned about falling dominoes if we see 10's break 2.66 this afternoon. So far, that's simply a bridge we'll cross if we come to it, and we've been walking in the opposite direction since 9am.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
98-03 : +0-03
102-08 : +0-02
105-19 : +0-04
| Treasuries || |
0.4683 : +0.0123
2.6225 : +0.0005
3.4455 : -0.0155
| Pricing as of 6/20/14 12:23PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
12:07PM : MBS Back Into Positive Territory. Staying Strong vs Treasuries
9:11AM : ALERT ISSUED: 10yr Testing 2.66, MBS Outperforming but Still Down on the Day
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "I'd say (and just did) that we're already seeing some"
Matthew Graham : "absolutely no way to predict AP. Could be any time, but greatest possibility before 3pm ET"
Andy Pada, Jr. : "if the quadruple witching were to cause volatility, when would we see those effects?"
Christopher Stevens : "certainly looks like the 10YR wants to break the current trend by heading north"
Hugh W. Page
: "Great piece IMO in the WSJ this morning on the Asset Rich Income Poor Economy we are in http://mndne.ws/1nnIr5p"
Hugh W. Page : "Happy Quadruple Witching Day"
Sung Kim : "really would like to see a move to below 2.60 today"