Bond markets began the day in stronger territory as the overnight session brought a small amount of post-FOMC follow-through. Realistically, when an analyst says "follow-through" it's just a more official way of saying prices kept moving in the same direction for no overt reason. If we want, we can conclude that any strong result yesterday would have suggested at least a visit to the lower end of the 10yr yield range at 2.57. Since we weren't quite there yesterday, some additional strength this morning is understandable in light of an uneventful Jobless Claims report.
That's basically the story of the morning. Traders may have been a little hesitant to get any more aggressive on the chance that Claims would come in super strong. It didn't, so we visited the bottom of the yield range. Despite some prodding into the mid 2.56's, we're essentially left with 2.57 acting as a floor and yields bouncing up to 2.61.
For MBS, this translated to a ceiling at 102-14. Both of those moves can be seen in the top two charts below. The third chart shows yields returning to pre-CPI levels, because Tuesday CPI caused some pre-Fed positioning (it also shows off the new time-frame functionality in the upcoming version of MBS Live, as well as the capability to have up to 3 charts open at once). Bottom line, we're right back where we were.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-30 : -0-07
102-04 : -0-04
105-14 : -0-02
| Treasuries || |
0.4557 : -0.0203
2.6097 : -0.0053
3.4371 : +0.0171
| Pricing as of 6/19/14 12:52PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
12:19PM : ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Moves to DEFCON 2
11:40AM : ALERT ISSUED: Incremental Increase in Reprice Risk as MBS Approach Lows
10:39AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Weakening after Philly Fed, and Technical Resistance
9:26AM : 10yr Testing 2.57 Boundary on Post-Fed Momentum
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "We're implementing all the feedback we've received over the past 2 years. You guys should enjoy it. Coming Soon™"
Matt Hodges : "next version? how could you improve on this already amazing site, MG?"
Matthew Graham : "In the next version of the site, OT will be easier to find without having to go through all the set-up."
Hugh W. Page : "Bee eerily quiet it seems for awhile"
Matthew Graham : "aye. the 'where's the excitement 2014' campaign continues"
Matt Hodges : "still nicely range bound"
Matthew Graham : "Not a whole lot"
Matt Hodges : "this is NFP sample week, right? What do you read into that, MG?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 2.561 MLN (CONS. 2.600 MLN) JUNE 7 WEEK, LOWEST SINCE OCT 2007, FROM 2.615 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.614 MLN)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 312,000 JUNE 14 WEEK (CONSENSUS 314,000) FROM 318,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 317,000)"