MBS Day Ahead: Fed Leaves Bond Markets in Same Old Range; Will Data Even Matter?
Today's economic data--like many other days in the history of financial markets--COULD certainly matter. Whether or not it does, depends on where it falls.
Typically, we shouldn't expect Jobless Claims to be a substantial market mover. It can have a noticeable impact fairly regularly, but that impact is a shadow of its former self (back when employment data was still in a state of flux as opposed to leveling-off with a sort of half-hearted strength).
Today's instance of Jobless Claims is the once-a-month affair that's different from the rest. Today's covers the week that contained the 12th of the month. That's significant because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (purveyors of NFP, among other things) state that the survey of businesses used to generate the NFP figure asks businesses for their employment data with a reference period that includes the 12th of the month!
In other words, this instance of Jobless Claims stands a better chance than the other 3 to speak to June's NFP numbers (released in early July). With no data tomorrow, and an exceptionally busy week next week , the following week's NFP (on Thursday due to Independence Day) is coming up quickly. With almost all sources of inspiration adding up to boredom for markets, perhaps economic data is all that's left when it comes to motivating bigger moves.
Add to all that the fact that the technical landscape is akin to a ball that's been pushed to the top of a hill. It would only take a medium-sized push to get it rolling heading into the weekend.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
98-05 : +0-00
102-08 : +0-00
105-16 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.4436 : -0.0324
2.5772 : -0.0378
3.4033 : -0.0167
| Pricing as of 6/19/14 7:43AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Thursday, Jun 19 |
|8:30 || Initial Jobless Claims (k)* || w/e || 314 || 317 |
|8:30 || Continued jobless claims (ml)* || w/e || 2.600 || 2.614 |
|10:00 || Philly Fed Business Index * || Jun || 14.0 || 15.4 |