MBS Day Ahead: Other Than FOMC's First Paragraph, Focus is on Forecasts and Yellen
Every other Fed meeting, we get the full meal deal of FOMC related events, which include the economic projections and the Fed Chair press conference in addition to the ever-present policy announcement. There's broad consensus among analysts and in the media that the Fed isn't likely to change much about the announcement. If they do, it will likely be a similar 'mild tweaking' as that seen in the last instance.
In light of yesterday's stronger inflation data, the jury is currently out as to whether the Fed addresses inflation in a different manner. Theoretically, they could let markets know they're not oblivious yet avoid rocking the boat by merely acknowledging some improvements in inflation metrics but stopping short of suggesting it has any impact on policy just yet.
The clearer clues on future policy paths are more likely to be seen in today's 'bonus' items. After all, it was the economic projections that surprised markets more than anything the last time we got them in March, followed closely by Yellen's first post-Announcement press conference.
Whatever the case may be, today's full Fed package stands a good chance to help bond markets break out of the narrow range that has characterized most of June (marked by 2.57-2.66 in 10yr yields). Recent Fed speeches have been increasingly polarized, with ample sentiment on both sides of the accommodation equation. They've certainly been increasingly downbeat on housing and certain labor market internals, yet will now be forced to balance that with steady-to-improving economic data elsewhere.
If one of the sides of the narrow range is broken today, the next major technical targets are somewhere near the red lines in the chart below.
The Announcement itself is at 2pm, along with the release of the economic projections. Yellen's press conference begins at 2:30pm.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-17 : +0-00
101-23 : +0-00
105-01 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.4718 : -0.0122
2.6423 : -0.0107
3.4430 : -0.0030
| Pricing as of 6/18/14 7:48AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Wednesday, Jun 18 |
|7:00 || Mortgage Market Index || w/e || || 387.1 |
|14:00 || FOMC rate decision (%)* || N/A || || 0.25 |