MBS Day Ahead: Today's Trading Could Say a Lot About Where Rates Might be Headed
Despite a lack of events on the calendar, today's session could still be informative due to yesterday's technical developments. (What's a "technical development?"). Specifically, yesterday morning's commentary noted that various technical indicators were "bad for now, but also primed for a reversal" if data came in weaker.
Indeed we got the movement needed to trigger a shift in the technicals. In case it needs to be said, this doesn't mean rates will continue improving, but it opens the door for that to happen, and definitely ends the recent, short-term trend higher in rates from late May.
Deeper reversal potential can be thought of in the sense of "good" vs "better" technical indications. These are informally noted on the chart below, except in the upper section where "bouncing off 2.66 as a ceiling" = good, and "breaking below 2.57" would be better.
If bond markets are weaker today AND if that coincides with equities improving, that would give off a potentially disconcerting signal that both sides of the market were bouncing off a key level in unison. Reason being, both sides of the market hit the EXACT levels seen moments before last week's ECB Announcement, which was last week's focal point. In other words, the more these two lines are bouncing higher in unison, the more established the horizontal line becomes as a barrier to further improvement.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-28 : +0-00
102-01 : +0-00
105-07 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.4634 : +0.0404
2.6150 : +0.0290
3.4168 : +0.0078
| Pricing as of 6/13/14 7:42AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Friday, Jun 13 |
|9:55 || U.Mich sentiment * || Jun || 83.0 || 71.6 |