Retail Sales and Jobless Claims both came in weaker than expected this morning and bond markets improved. That set of cause and effect could have taken many forms, and today's is nothing if not the most boring.
Internal components (beyond the headlines) held back more meaningful movement. This was particularly true in the case of Retail Sales where the last report was revised higher by MORE than the current report missed the forecast. So that's actually a net-negative implication for bond markets, and it does more than required to explain why we're not rallying more sharply today.
Jobless Claims was simply close enough to the consensus as to not much matter. Markets will be more interested in next week's version which will cover the same time period used to crunch early July NFP numbers. None of the morning's other reports moved the needle.
Fannie 3.5s have been between 1 and 4 ticks better since the data. They'd opened about 4 ticks weaker. 10yr yields avoided a break above 2.66 again overnight, but came close. They're near 2-day lows now at 2.624 (about 1bp above the lows).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-22 : +0-05
101-27 : +0-03
105-03 : +0-02
| Treasuries || |
0.4310 : +0.0000
2.6240 : -0.0160
3.4608 : -0.0082
| Pricing as of 6/12/14 12:11PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:47AM : Bond Markets Run to Best Levels; Approaching 3-day Highs
8:42AM : Bond markets back in positive territory after Retail Sales and Jobless Claims
Live Chat Featured Comments
Hugh W. Page : "big miss on sales"
Victor Burek : "revisions not helping, but seems everything went our way"
Sung Kim : "dodged another bullet"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US CONTINUED CLAIMS ROSE TO 2.614 MLN (CONS. 2.598 MLN) MAY 31 WEEK FROM 2.603 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.603 MLN)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 317,000 JUNE 7 WEEK (CONSENSUS 310,000) FROM 313,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 312,000)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US MAY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS +0.1 PCT (CONS +0.4 PCT) VS APR +0.4 PCT (PREV UNCHANGED)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US MAY RETAIL SALES +0.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.6 PCT) VS APR +0.5 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)"