Despite bond markets undergoing many more vacillations between "positive" and "negative" territory today, trading levels are still heading out the door essentially unchanged. That's sort of a victory on a week where the first two days saw rates moving slowly but surely higher. Either that, or it's simply a leveling-off process ahead of tomorrow's more robust data calendar.
If there's something to be disheartened about, it's the amount of time that 10yr yields have willingly spent moving back into the 2.6's. But optimists could just as easily note that 2.647 held up as a great 2-day ceiling during domestic market hours and the important 2.66 level held up to an overnight test.
When yields break back into a previously sideways range after a rally, and when they start finding overhead support before traversing that range, it can sometimes be a signal that the previously aggressive downtrend is morphing into a gentler downtrend longer-term. It's way too soon to know whether or not that's happening hear, but any little victory would help keep the possibility alive.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-17 : +0-03
101-24 : +0-00
105-00 : -0-03
| Treasuries || |
0.4349 : -0.0041
2.6403 : +0.0033
3.4668 : +-0.0002
| Pricing as of 6/11/14 4:55PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
3:15PM : Bonds Can't Sustain Bounce; Back Near Unchanged Levels
2:12PM : Bond Markets Back in Positive Territory
1:04PM : ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Picks up Quickly after 10yr Auction
11:23AM : MBS Pull Back from Best Levels
10:45AM : Following Europe to Stronger Levels
9:21AM : Bond Markets Slightly Better Than 'Unchanged' With Some Help From Europe
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Christopher Stevens : "can't break below 2.60 and bouncing off 2.64...that is a narrow range"
Matthew Graham : "Jeff, you can't think about it like normal supply/demand. There are 3 variables in this case, supply, demand, and price. Today we had higher demand, but at lower prices. Demand is only a net-positive for Treasury auctions that come in at or below the yield expectations. "
Jeff Anderson : "Sign me up for Prof Hodges class. But isn't BTC demand and the more demand isn't better? I get they want some yield also. "
Matt Hodges : "MG, the teacher will grade on a curve... this becomes a B"
Victor Burek : "so if q1 gdp is -1.6, we would need 4.5% growth the next 3 quarters to hit the Feds target"
Victor Burek : "JPM, cutting its Q1 GDP from -1.1% to -1.6%, which if realized will be the worst collapse in US economic growth since the recession. "