MBS Day Ahead: Still a Potentially Big Day for Bond Markets Despite Empty Calendar
Even though yesterday had more going on in terms of scheduled events, today will likely see better participation among traders. The current order of business is deciding whether or not rates stay in stealth mode ahead of next week's ECB/NFP combo.*
The alternative would be to begin breaking away from the narrow ranges intact since mid May. In truth, rates would have to rally strongly in order to officially test those ranges, but we've already taken one step in the direction yesterday as the consolidative trend is tested.
The analogous level to 2.47% 10yr yields in terms of MBS is essentially 103-00 in Fannie 3.5 coupons. We're not really witnessing "big" movements unless we're breaking past these levels.
Today offers no significant economic data and the rarely-significant 5yr Treasury auction. It would be a surprise to see a major reaction to the auction. Any movement will once again have to come from tradeflows and technicals unless we happen to get a big enough headline. That's just a fancy way of saying anything can happen, but the baseline is for limited movement until bigger market movers arrive.
*The ECB/NFP combo refers to Thursday's policy announcement from the European Central bank, which stands some chance to specify new easing measures or rate cuts (the probability of this accounts for some of the recent bond market positivity) and the Nonfarm Payrolls report released the following morning (the most important piece of domestic economic data and always the biggest potential market mover each month).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
98-17 : +0-00
102-23 : +0-00
105-23 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.3789 : -0.0111
2.5017 : -0.0163
3.3492 : -0.0178
| Pricing as of 5/28/14 7:39AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Wednesday, May 28 |
|7:00 || Mortgage Market Index || w/e || || 366.5 |
|13:00 || 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* || || 35 || |