So far in the month of May, MBS have been making much bigger day to day moves than in April. But it's worth remembering that things can get a lot more volatile, for better or worse. While May seems fast-paced compared to April, it's nothing compared to recent episodes of volatility in MBS prices. The chart below shows how May stacks up to the past 12 months. In addition, you might see some regularity in how volatility has decreased over that time. It's also worth keeping in mind that while the present moment always seems like it has more at stake, we're still inside that trend of decreasing volatility overall.
Volatility has been slightly less of an issue for Treasury benchmarks. 10yr yields had been in an even more contained range than MBS and are now in a linear downtrend as they break away from that range. Of note in the following chart is that whether we're looking at this linear downtrend or the long term inflection point at 2.47, the most recent leg of the rally is running into resistance.
The week ahead is fairly straightforward. Monday and Tuesday are silent in terms of scheduled economic data, though there will be a few Fed speakers about. Wednesday is a veritable Fed communication glut as no fewer than 4 speeches will hit the wires along with the Minutes from the most recent FOMC Meeting.
The week's economic data doesn't arrive until Thursday, when we get Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales. The following morning brings New Home Sales to round out the housing data for the week. To whatever extent last week's Housing Starts numbers interested markets (probably "some," though it's obfuscated by other market-moving considerations), these could be a bit more interesting than normal. The week ends a few hours early ahead of a 3-day Memorial Day weekend--a fact that could mean lighter participation among traders
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