Even if we were being as pessimistic as possible and making every excuse for the 2014 trading range, there's no way to put a caveat on today's levels. Bond markets are officially breaking the range, and in a good way. Just keep in mind that "breaking" requires confirmation. The strongest scenario is one in which rates remain below "the range" by the end of the day tomorrow.
For today though, it's good. 10yr yields are down to 2.53's, on a combination of overnight news regarding the ECB's likelihood of easing rates or buying bonds at the upcoming meeting in early June and simply due to snowball buying. All that means is that when traders may have been in more agreement about rates moving higher, and when something comes along to push rates quickly lower (like a one-two punch from Retail Sales and the ECB), that there's a bit of a rush to move in the other direction--covering the bets that are quickly becoming less profitable.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
98-09 : +0-16
102-12 : +0-12
105-11 : +0-09
| Treasuries || |
0.3589 : -0.0281
2.5338 : -0.0842
3.3725 : -0.0815
| Pricing as of 5/14/14 12:08PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:21AM : Snowball Buying for Bonds as Treasuries Break 2014 Lows
9:24AM : Bond Markets Pushing Best Levels of 2014 After ECB News
Live Chat Featured Comments
Jeff Anderson : "Back to the margin squeeze. Retail sales showed the costs can't really be passed on to consumers right now, right?"
Victor Burek : "I did read an interesting article on treasuries last night saying they will stay low in yield even with a recovery as the baby boomers retire, they will shift assets from stocks to more conservative bonds"
Hugh W. Page : "I think we'll still move higher but but it probably puts somewhat of a lid on how high they will go."
joon choi : "have borrower that i cannot get 2013 tax transcript because of ID theft, any recommendation?"
Jason Zimmer : "if had this happen twice Joon. it's a very long process."
Jason Zimmer : "no recommendation except to wait it out. it can take months if your investor won't allow a work around"
Jason Anker : "Joon, your borrower should have a contact at the IRS, they can help him get what you need. "
joon choi : "IRS will not process the borrower return, they are hoping fake one will file again so IRS is will not process her 2013 return"
Victor Burek : "very odd, lenders seem slow to pass along these gains"