Even if we were being as pessimistic as possible and making every excuse for the 2014 trading range, there's no way to put a caveat on today's levels. Bond markets are officially breaking the range, and in a good way. Just keep in mind that "breaking" requires confirmation. The strongest scenario is one in which rates remain below "the range" by the end of the day tomorrow.
For today though, it's good. 10yr yields are down to 2.53's, on a combination of overnight news regarding the ECB's likelihood of easing rates or buying bonds at the upcoming meeting in early June and simply due to snowball buying. All that means is that when traders may have been in more agreement about rates moving higher, and when something comes along to push rates quickly lower (like a one-two punch from Retail Sales and the ECB), that there's a bit of a rush to move in the other direction--covering the bets that are quickly becoming less profitable.
Join Now or Login to Post Comments