So far, the opening prices have been the worst of the day for MBS. In addition to the 12 ticks accounted for by the roll, Fannie 4.0s were another 5 ticks weaker at the start of the session, opening at 104-02. They've improved steadily, but very slowly since then to 104-06.
Treasuries were similarly able to hold their ground near the weaker morning levels, but have been more sideways compared to MBS. With no significant data/events this morning, Treasury yields were fairly well hooked up with stock futures (or simply with stock prices after 930am--no difference in the movement, just the levels). That said, stocks have been more volatile relative to Treasuries.
The latter is more at risk of seeing volatility with the afternoon events. Those include a 10yr Note Auction at 1pm, and the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. These aren't necessarily destined to cause big movements, but they have that potential. Of the two, FOMC Minutes is the bigger deal.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-25 : -0-04
100-27 : -0-04
104-05 : -0-03
| Treasuries || |
0.4029 : +0.0039
2.7043 : +0.0233
3.5548 : +0.0128
| Pricing as of 4/9/14 11:50AMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
9:27AM : Bond Markets Weaker Overnight, Mostly Holding Ground This AM
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matt Hodges : "MG - well written day ahead... a good reminder of how the roll works. Well done."
Geoff Allison : "Any lenders, other than private, for a purchase primary SFR with 20-25% down 740 score and a short sale on a NOO 18 months ago? 120 days late on mortgage until short sale."
Matt Hodges : "on self employed, any reason you could not add back depreciationa and section 179 expense deduction? They are non-cash expenses, purely for federal ira reporting"
John Paul Mulchay : "LO peer called me yesterday to let me know he just got access to a no seasoning, 20% down, post FC/SS lender with rates in mid 4s. Who knows about this? Or is it a Unicorn?"
Mike Drews : "there are a number on programs in the works that i'm hearing chatter about..not surprised"
Sung Kim : "you can add those items back matt, just be careful with notes payable and due w/in 1 yr"
Matt Hodges : "ty sung... another lender wouldn't add it back and it made me wonder"
Roger Moore : "any concerns the minutes will be a market mover? "
Matthew Graham : "only in the sense that there isn't much buzz on them. On rare occasions, that's a set-up for a big surprise. I'm not really sure what that surprise could be this time though. Taper to continue? Check. Rate-hike in 2015 if economy isn't sliding? Check. I don't think they can do anything to make things much worse for bond markets today. The only question is whether or not traders are positioned aggressively because they are already counting on that fact."
David Rudnick : "hey guys, ... are we up or down on MBS today (due to roll)"
Matt Hodges : "roll already cleared"
Andrew Horowitz : "look in the box to the left and look for the word PREV that tells you where we closed on current coupon the previous day"
Matthew Graham : "The morning update is usually a great place to get the skinny on overnight and early morning trading. It will always be the first "MBS LIVE UPDATE" of the day. For instance, today's first sentence: "In addition to the roll which accounted for a 12 tick drop in prices, Fannie 4.0s are down another 5 ticks this morning""