In one of today's updates for MBS live subscribers, I noted that bond markets continued to trade "as expected."
Where did those expectations come from?
Earth-shattering conclusion: rates could have gone higher or lower today. While that much is obvious every day, the path taken can vary by the millisecond.
Given that yesterday's weakness brought rates to the highest end of their two month range, but also maintained a long, sideways streak, one potential outcome for today was for rates to break higher, taking a "lead-off" into tomorrow's NFP.
This would have required some combination of negative reaction to the morning's ECB events and the ISM Non-Manufacturing data. When we didn't get either of those things, we're left with one overt conclusion--that rates are staying within the range--and one fairly logical deduction--if they were pushing the weakest edge of that range yesterday and NFP is coming up tomorrow, they're not likely to go stampeding back to the other side of the range.
Such is the case with prices and yields today. MBS have been clear in their mission to hold above yesterday's lows, but equally clear to meet resistance before breaking yesterday's highs. Same exact story for Treasuries. 10yr yields respected the technical ceiling in the 2.80-2.82 zone and bounced hard at yesterday morning's pivot point in the 2.77's.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-07 : +0-04
100-10 : +0-04
103-23 : +0-04
| Treasuries || |
0.4580 : +0.0000
2.7917 : -0.0113
3.6231 : -0.0259
| Pricing as of 4/3/14 4:05PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
2:37PM : Cautious, Contained Positivity Part 2: Now With Reprices!
10:38AM : Bond Markets Improving Now, Helped by Data and Europe
10:09AM : First Move is Slightly Stronger after ISM Data
9:01AM : Bond Markets Unchanged Overnight, Hit Snooze Button After 1st Round of Data
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Moshe Berg : "so...locking or floating into tomorrow?"
aaron meyer : "MB I let my clients make that call by gleaning the information from MND"
Michael Gillani : "Does anyone here use more than one credit repository? And if so, do you notice different credit scores amongst them?"
Ira Selwin : "MG - I assume you mean credit vendor? There shouldn't be an actual difference in the scores between two."
joon choi : "unfortunately something the scores are slightly different"
Vince Boryla : "Borrower doing a conventional 20% down also borrowing from 401K do we count the 401K loan payment in DTI ratio."
Brent Borcherding : "No, the 401K payment is not counted as a debt in the DTI."
Frank Hanna : "who has the best apr calculating site? using it for scnearios on a flyer"
Michael Dormer : "That's actually very handy, Hugh -- I'm happy to have lurked in the chat box today. Thanks."
Timothy Baron : "Love all this green today."