As we frequently discuss on NFP weeks, it's not uncommon for bond markets to drift into weaker territory in spite of contrary data or events. This same sort of bracing for impact can also be seen heading into Treasury auction cycles. In short, market participants are aware something is coming that could be challenging and it's easier to approach from a short position in the current era. That wasn't always the case, but when the risk to bond markets is that the economy will be growing faster than expected, the defensive play is to sell first and buy later if the data isn't super strong.
There are events that will play a role in determining if and how such a lead off further develops today. Those include the ECB Rate Decision at 745am, followed by Draghi's press conference at 830am. While that coincides with Jobless Claims and the Trade Deficit data, it's ISM Non-Manufacturing that has the most market-moving potential of the domestic economic data.
Just for kicks, that data is overlaid against Private Payrolls, set to report at the end of the week in the following chart. ISM is forecast to rise back above the 3+ year low it broke last time. If it does, it would be yet another report arguing for a bounce back against weather-related weakness in the winter months.
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