MBS Day Ahead: GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Last Treasury Auction
Bond markets will get what is probably their busiest day of economic events today. Right out of the gate, two relatively important pieces of data with the final reading of Q4 GDP and weekly Jobless Claims. Cleveland Fed Pres Pianalto will begin speaking at the same time.
GDP is one of those reports that certainly can have an impact, but not in the same profound sort of way that top tier market movers can. While it may be a top tier name on main street simply because it's the most ubiquitous economic metric, it's also horribly stale--covering a time frame that began half a year ago and was over 3 months ago. Markets care more about tomorrow than last year.
Jobless Claims are more timely, but also prone to volatility. Additionally, it's the the reports that cover NFP survey week (the week that the Establishment survey takes place, which is used to generate the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls number. The theory goes that Jobless Claims on that week will speak more to the potential movement in NFP) that tend to be the biggest market movers. The net effect of the 8:30am data is that it CAN have an impact, but not a huge one.
The only exception to this based on past experience would be if GDP happens to be so far from the 2.7% consensus that markets can't help but react (as in, "gosh, that's so far from consensus, I think others will react to this, so I better preempt that).
10am brings Pending Home Sales. While this isn't much of a market mover, it can be a good early look at next month's Existing Home Sales data (recently discussed HERE).
The afternoon wraps up the week's Treasury auction cycle with 7yr notes. While these aren't as meaningful as yesterday's 5yr tenors, there's always something to be said for cleaning up the last of the week's debt supply. Once the requirement to bid on those bonds passes, there can occasionally be another quick movement, regardless of the auction's strength.
Serving as the backdrop for the digestion of all this economic data will be an ongoing sideways grind for bond markets in the bigger picture (mid-Jan to present), but one that has been largely positive since last week's FOMC-inspired sell-off. Within the sideways range, 10yr yields have recently begun showing some consolidative tendencies. Interestingly enough, they may be pointing right at the next significant source of volatility.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-22 : +0-00
100-25 : +0-00
104-05 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.4575 : +0.0115
2.7063 : +0.0033
3.5498 : -0.0012
| Pricing as of 3/27/14 8:00AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Thursday, Mar 27 |
|8:30 || GDP Final (%) || Q4 || 2.7 || 2.4 |
|8:30 || Initial Jobless Claims (k)* || w/e || 325 || 320 |
|10:00 || Pending homes index || Feb || || 95.0 |
|13:00 || 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* || || 29 || |