A good thing to keep in mind about any data-based conclusion in financial markets is that details matter. This is true both in terms of the reference to market movement in the headline as well as several of the day's economic releases.
For instance, it is true that stocks and bonds are essentially unchanged after the morning's economic data, but that's based on yesterday's closing levels. Compared to 9:59am, stocks are weaker and bonds are stronger, suggesting the 10am economic data helped us get back to unchanged levels day-over-day.
This issue of the initial point of reference is important for today's housing data as well. Time is running a story touting a housing market that is "roaring back" based on the 9am home price data. Of course, it's good to be optimistic, and it certainly gets more attention from realtors and mortgage folks in this industry, but it's also good to be realistic. And realistically, prices may be turning a corner just as much as they may be set to move higher.
Details continue to be important when we look at the New Home Sales data. While 440k (today's headline) is pretty close to the 445k forecast, the real story may be the burgeoning stagnancy between 440k and 460k.
All that having been said, if we stay true to 'details mattering,' it's worth noting that New Home Sales, as a data set, has a wide margin of error, not to mention the fact that data can certainly level-off in this sort of way before continuing to move higher. The point is that a firm conclusion is impossible to make right now. Even though that's not as interesting as "roaring," etc., it's at least more accurate.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-10 : -0-01
100-15 : -0-01
103-28 : +0-01
| Treasuries || |
0.4291 : -0.0159
2.7371 : +0.0021
3.5880 : +0.0150
| Pricing as of 3/25/14 12:12PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:18AM : Bond Markets Improved Slightly After 10am Data
9:24AM : Bond Markets Slightly Weaker; Holding Ground After 1st Round of Data
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JANUARY HOME PRICES IN 20 METRO AREAS +0.8 PCT SEASONALLY ADJ (CONSENSUS +0.7) VS REVISED +0.7 PCT IN DECEMBER- S&P/CASE-SHILLER"
Matthew Graham : "FHFA numbers: RTRS- U.S. HOME PRICES +7.4 PCT IN 12 MONTHS THROUGH JANUARY - U.S. REGULATOR"
Ted Rood : "Jan/Feb existing home sales in St Louis market were reported down 15-20% over 2013 in our local paper today."
Christopher Stevens : "With the yld curve in bear flattening mode I would think forecasts of economic growth would be tempered. "
Oliver Orlicki : "jt, still think we hit 2.25%"
John Tassios : "I agree with that OO, it won't be straight line down though, but overall trend will be for lower long end rates"
Christopher Stevens : "That is quite a drop from current levels. last time we saw 2.25 on the way down was April '12"
Victor Burek : "we'll see 2.25 before 3.25"
Stephen Mitroka : "JT - folks in Michigan thought I was crazy when I sparked the 2.25% conversation 4 months ago. I think your assesment is right on"
Christopher Stevens : "going to take quite a shock to break this current 2.60-3.00 range we have seen since3 mid Nov"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US MARCH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 82.3 (CONSENSUS 78.6) VS FEBRUARY REVISED 78.3 (PREVIOUS 78.1) - CONFERENCE BOARD"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US FEB SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 440,000 UNIT ANN. RATE, LOWEST SINCE SEPT 2013, (CONS 445,000) VS JAN 455,000 UNIT RATE (PREV 468,000)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US FEB HOME SALES NORTHEAST -32.4 PCT, MIDWEST +36.7 PCT, SOUTH -1.5 PCT, WEST -15.9 PCT"