Whereas yesterday got the week off to a slow start in terms of economic data, today makes up for it. There are two reports in the 9am time slot--both home price reports, and 2 in the 10am slot--Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.
Of the two time slots, 10am has far greater potential for market movement. New Home Sales is moderately important, and Consumer Confidence can be a significant market mover depending on how the employment-related internals jive with the rest of the data.
For instance, if the headline confidence reading is weaker than expected AND if the labor differential deteriorates (a measure of Consumer Confidence Survey respondents who say "jobs are plentiful" minus those who say "jobs are hard to get") it could be quite good for bond markets and mortgage rates--vice versa if both are strong. Of course the data could be a mixed bag, or offset by a big beat/miss in New Home Sales, but if Consumer Confidence fails to inspire in either direction, nothing else on the calendar of scheduled events likely will.
Tuesday also begins the Treasury Note auction cycle with 2yr Notes up first at 1pm. Since the descent of the Fed Funds Rate to it's lower bound, short term Treasury auctions haven't much mattered in terms of market movement. With rates seen being so low for so long, 2yr money was just an equation-based extension of "cash." But now that the FOMC is making clear references to mid-2015 for the first potential rate hike (who know if it happens, but it's on the table anyway), 2yr auctions and 2yr trading in general could become more relevant considerations elsewhere on the yield curve. All that to say, 2's may be worth watching today, even if still not as much as tomorrow's 5yr Notes.
Join Now or Login to Post Comments