On the one hand, this week's calendar of events is fairly well packed. On the other, it's spring break. While that may not sap the level of activity in markets in the same way that it does in--say--a school, it makes a difference.
On top of whatever decrease in activity we see due to market participants taking time off, it's also the case that the following week (with ISM, Chicago PMI, ADP, and NFP) will be much more important from an economic data standpoint. Even then, with a few pieces of March data (more relevant in building a case for diminishing "weather" effects), several Fed speakers, Treasury Auctions, and Q4 final GDP, it will still be worth tuning in.
Today kicks things off slowly, with only Markit's Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, flanked by Fed speakers Stein at 9am and Fisher at 1:45pm. Keep in mind there are two Fed members whose names sound the same. Richard Fisher is the Dallas Fed President who likened markets to "feral hogs" and accommodative policy to "monetary cocaine." Stanley Fischer is the newly appointed Vice Chair of the Fed (Yellen's old job) who is credited with navigating Isreal's central bank through the financial crisis better than any other developed country (based on the fact that Israel was the first to successfully raise rates), and who also taught Bernanke at MIT. Just throwing this out there, but it seems like Fischer > Fisher in terms of street cred, but certainly Fisher > Fischer in terms of comedy.
Tuesday gets busier (much busier actually) with FHFA Home Prices, Case Shiller Home Prices, New Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence all at the 9am and 10am time slots. The week's Treasury auction cycle kicks off as well, and unlike the normal scenario, 2yr Notes could garner more of a reaction in light of the recent yield curve volatility inspired by last week's FOMC events.
Wednesday slows down on data, with only Durable Goods in the morning, but speeds up in the auction department with the battleground 5yr Notes (in that they've been hit much harder than 10's since the FOMC events because they'd be much more affected by a rate hike. Here's a chart of 10's vs 5's relative ranges):
Data and Fed speakers continue through the end of the week with GDP and Jobless Claims on Thursday, as well as Pending Home Sales and the last of the week's Treasury Auctions. Friday brings Incomes/Outlays and Consumer Sentiment. Although GDP tends to be a stale economic report that doesn't move markets as much as it's "household name" status might suggest, this is the last installment of the Q4 GDP data, and packs a bit of an extra punch. It's currently seen rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the last reading.
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