MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Looking For Exit; Meaningless Existence Without Data
Apart from April options expiry in Treasuries, there's really not anything to trade on today for bond markets. Wednesday's Fed forecast speedbump was the big mover, and there's little reason for volatility apart from economic data that is weak or strong enough to contribute to a material change in the outlook.
To reiterate this point, here's what 10yr yields have done since Wednesday afternoon:
Of course there can always be unforeseen considerations that necessitate movement outside these narrow ranges, but left to their own devices, bond markets would be content to leave the onus of guidance on next week's economic data.
From an intraday standpoint, we can, of course, watch the short term technical levels implied by this range trade. 2.795 on the high end and 2.76 on the low end. Closing outside this range could offer a hint about next week's momentum, but more likely, it would merely be the byproduct of a tradeflow consideration surrounding the options expiration (any April Treasury options previously traded will have to be exercised or abandoned), or perhaps corporate bond hedging (large firms temporarily entering and exiting Treasury trades to manage interest rate risk during the process of issuing corporate debt).
The only really important technical level for MBS is 103-16 in Fannie 4.0s. Anything above that to end the week is basically "living to fight another day." Anything below and this triangle is being tested, which is a bad thing, but only profoundly bad if it coincides with Treasuries breaking above their yield range as well. ("triangle" = consolidating trendlines, where breaking outside is a vote in favor of the opposite line).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-05 : +0-00
100-08 : +0-00
103-22 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.4327 : +0.0007
2.7734 : -0.0016
3.6577 : -0.0033
| Pricing as of 3/21/14 8:00AMEST |