Last week's calendar of events were little match for the headlines coming out regarding the situation in Ukraine.  Markets were in full "herd mode," simply trying to react to the news and to each others' reactions. 

The current week begins with the referendum in Crimea showing a majority of voters wanting to join Russia and Russian Parliament saying there would be legislation to this effect in the near future.  It's as yet unclear whether the drama simply fizzles out now or if there's more to come.

While that's being determined, financial markets will start digesting a more robust slate of economic data right off the bat.  Additionally, we have an FOMC Announcement on Wednesday with Yellen's first "Chair Press Conference."  With the exception of Friday, there are at least a few notable economic events every day  this week.  Thursday is the busiest day  with the most meaningful data (other than FOMC Wednesday, but that's not technically economic data).

If the data is decent or better, or if geopolitical tensions don't spike again, bond markets are facing the prospect of confirming yet another medium-term bounce.  Incidentally, the last such bounce came after rallying sharply on Ukraine fears, and holding sideways in much the same way as we've just done.

2014-3-16 Treasury then and now

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
96-29 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
101-02 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
104-13 : +0-00
2 YR
0.3545 : +0.0125
10 YR
2.6777 : +0.0327
30 YR
3.6146 : +0.0276
Pricing as of 3/17/14 8:00AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Mar 17
8:30 NY Fed manufacturing * Mar 6.00 4.48
9:15 Industrial output mm (%) Feb 0.1 -0.3
10:00 NAHB housing market indx * Mar 50 46
Tuesday, Mar 18
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Feb 0.910 0.880
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Feb 0.960 0.945
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Feb 0.1 0.1
Wednesday, Mar 19
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 373.3
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A
Thursday, Mar 20
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 325 315
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Feb 0.2 0.3
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Feb 4.60 4.62
10:00 Philly Fed Business Index * Mar 3.8 -6.3