Bond markets started the day in fairly decent shape, not much changed following yesterday's substantial Ukraine-inspired improvement. Domestic economic data was shunned as Geopolitics continued to dominate today's landscape though the action was much less one-sided.
In fact, there were 4 big reversals (at least 6/32nds each time) between positive and negative territory for MBS before noon! You could count the number of times that happens in a year on one hand. Thankfully today's iteration began with a rally into the week's best levels and managed to stay mostly sideways.
The near-term focal point continues to be Crimea's referendum on Sunday, deciding whether or not to become part of Russia. From there, the resulting domino affect of US/EU responses and Russia/Ukraine responses to those responses will flesh out the rest of the story. In general, the more we're moving away from Cold War 2, the worse it will be for rates.
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