The boring scenario for today would be for the all-important Employment Situation Report to show payroll creation lagging recent averages, coming in at or below consensus of 149k (or 154k for Private Payrolls). In that situation, market bulls and bears are likely to continue waiting for more confirmation that the moderate weakness is weather-related.
Bulls might wait less than bears though, and that's the biggest risk of a number that's near or above consensus. The logic is simple: if the weather is supposed to be holding job creation back, and job creation is stronger-than-expected, then that's either an unequivocally positive comment on labor markets or some weird volatility is working its way through the series.
This "volatility" concept is the only other saving grace for bond markets in the event of a strong result. In this scenario, even a strong result could be discounted due to fact it's so dissimilar to the most recent reports, themselves dissimilar from the reports before that. In other words, payrolls prints went from close to 300k to under 100k in just a few months. It could make some sense to let that volatility subside before making big bets on longer term moves.
Keep in mind though, that's simply what fans of low rates would HOPE for. We might not get it. If payrolls manage to break back above 180k (and stranger things have happened), it could look very much like "back to business").
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-19 : +0-00
100-28 : +0-00
104-14 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.3454 : +0.0004
2.7336 : -0.0034
3.6820 : -0.0040
| Pricing as of 3/7/14 7:45AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Friday, Mar 07 |
|8:30 || Non-farm payrolls (k)* || Feb || 149 || 113 |
|8:30 || Unemployment rate mm (%)* || Feb || 6.6 || 6.6 |
|8:30 || International trade mm $ (bl)* || Jan || -39.0 || -38.7 |
|8:30 || Average workweek hrs (hr)* || Feb || 34.4 || 34.4 |
|8:30 || Private Payrolls (k)* || Feb || 154 || 142 |
|15:00 || Consumer credit (bl) || Jan || 14.00 || 18.76 |