There's always a risk of crediting uncommon news headlines with too much market movement. That's certainly happening with Ukraine to some extent at the moment, but Ukraine headlines are also certainly contributing to bond market positivity.
As for the stronger-than-expected economic data, it was actually fairly lackluster. The morning's most important piece of data--ISM Manufacturing--was only moderately stronger, and with the exception of the previous report, it would be the weakest since June 2013. It didn't motivate much movement at all.
Even before ISM came out at 10am, stocks and bond yields began moving lower together starting at 9:40am and have been in relative lock step for most of the session. That's a common occurrence during these 'flight-to-safety' movements. The other common side effect is that MBS underperform Treasuries, which is also the case today. That said, both are at their best levels of the day heading into the afternoon.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-14 : +0-08
101-21 : +0-08
105-01 : +0-07
| Treasuries || |
0.3052 : -0.0238
2.6030 : -0.0570
3.5542 : -0.0398
| Pricing as of 3/3/14 11:58AMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:23AM : Holding Ground Despite Slightly Stronger ISM Manufacturing Data
9:46AM : Bond Markets Losing Ground as Flight-to-Safety Unwinds
8:49AM : Bond Markets Stronger Overnight, Little-Changed After Data
Live Chat Featured Comments
Christopher Stevens : "GM all. Looks like Geopolitical risk pushing 10yr down a little. Not sure how long that will last before market positions itself for NFP Friday. "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JAN PERSONAL INCOME +0.3 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JAN PERSONAL SPENDING +0.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- MARKIT U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR FINAL PMI FOR FEBRUARY AT 57.1 (CONSENSUS 56.6) VS FLASH READING 56.7, FINAL JANUARY 53.7"
Matthew Graham : "(FYI, that's not the big one we're waiting for, but sometimes a prelude)"
Christopher Stevens : "does anybody know if Wells is thinking of dropping FHA FICO to 600 on Correspondent level?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ISM REPORT ON U.S. MANUFACTURING SHOWS PMI AT 53.2 IN FEBRUARY (CONSENSUS 52.0) VS 51.3 IN JAN"
Andy Pada, Jr. : "fyi: Freddie Mac changed their Relief Refi > 105% LTV significantly"
Dave Pressel : "I just checked Bankrate for a 60%LTV r/t refi in NJ -- saw 4.125% 0 pts 30 yr 60 day lock with $0 fees.....and that is why I stopped using online lead aggregators......the only thing missing was free babysitting for life for your kids"