Month-end to the rescue! We've been talking about it all week and now the phenomenon (month-end buying) is a major contributor in bond markets' ability to stem losses and bounce back today. Some of the weakness was in place from the overnight session while the rest followed this morning's economic data--chiefly Chicago PMI. After that, a steady bid carried both Treasuries and MBS most of the way back to unchanged levels. Quite a few lenders repriced positively.
That leaves us somewhere between the mid-point and the stronger side of the recent range heading into next week's Nonfarm Payrolls number. It's not a guarantee that rates will move higher now simply because month-end buying won't be around, but a stronger ISM report on Monday would definitely encourage such a reversal. In short, look for more connectivity between data and market movements. Today's Chicago PMI showed us what that looks like when it comes to stronger data, but the jury remains out on how much the weather will continue to discount the weaker data.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-03 : -0-06
101-11 : -0-04
104-25 : -0-03
| Treasuries || |
0.3248 : +-0.0002
2.6583 : +0.0163
3.5958 : +-0.0002
| Pricing as of 2/28/14 3:57PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
2:34PM : Ongoing Positive Reprice Potential Thanks to Month-End Boost
11:56AM : Some Resilience For Bond Markets After Data Effects Wear Off
9:57AM : ALERT ISSUED: Consumer Sentiment Keeps Pressure on Bond Markets
9:50AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Lost More Ground After Chicago PMI
9:43AM : ALERT ISSUED: Pre-Data Selling Suggests Strong Chicago PMI
9:19AM : Bond Markets Slightly Weaker After GDP
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Andy Pada, Jr. : "next week's job forecasts are low."
Andy Pada, Jr. : "according to the econ. calendar, 155 ADP and 149 NFP"
Ted Rood : "so if we hit 160, it will indicate a booming economy."
Troy Evans : "Will traders adjust their buying/selling over the next week in anticipation of those expected numbers?"
John Tassios : "that and ongoing Geo-Political risk too"
Matthew Graham : "not really. They already know about them. Bigger adjustment likely from "month-end" being over. "
Matthew Graham : "ISM on Monday and ADP on Wednesday also more likely to cause adjustment than forecasts. "
Caroline Roy : "had a customer tell me that "3.125% was all over the internet""
Matthew Graham : "MBS alert once say: " Stay tuned for some potential volatility (could be positive or negative) into and after 3pm Eastern." Looks like all the excitement is in Treasuries though..."
Robert Brinkley : "yeah, and UFOS and Bigfoot are all over the internet too"