Bond markets went into the locker room after this morning's econ data fairly discouraged, but not enough to give up. That was less obviously the case between 10 and 11am when MBS were over a quarter of a point weaker on the day and 10yr yields were up nearly 6bps. Both bounced modestly in the other direction after that.
The bounce is probably attributable to the droning support from month-end tradeflows seen so far this week. That would go a long way toward explaining bond markets' ability to stem losses even as stocks continue to new highs. It also raises some concern as to the implication for Monday, though the ISM Manufacturing data is more likely to set the tone.
As for the rest of today, the afternoon positivity is almost up to the task of suggesting positive reprices for a select few lenders. At the moment, Fannie 3.5s and 4.0s are each .125 higher than 10am levels.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
97-01 : -0-08
101-09 : -0-06
104-24 : -0-04
| Treasuries || |
0.3327 : +0.0077
2.6762 : +0.0342
3.6103 : +0.0143
| Pricing as of 2/28/14 12:41PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
11:56AM : Some Resilience For Bond Markets After Data Effects Wear Off
9:57AM : ALERT ISSUED: Consumer Sentiment Keeps Pressure on Bond Markets
9:50AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Lost More Ground After Chicago PMI
9:43AM : ALERT ISSUED: Pre-Data Selling Suggests Strong Chicago PMI
9:19AM : Bond Markets Slightly Weaker After GDP
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US PRELIM Q4 GDP +2.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.5 PCT), PREV +3.2 PCT; FINAL SALES +2.3 PCT (CONS +2.5 PCT), PREV +2.8 PCT"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q4 CONSUMER SPENDING +2.6 PCT (PREV +3.3 PCT); DURABLES +2.5 PCT, WEAKEST READING SINCE Q2 2011 (PREV +5.9 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US PRELIM Q4 GDP DEFLATOR +1.6 PCT (CONS +1.3 PCT), PREV +1.3 PCT"
Hugh W. Page : "Looks worse than it is on the short term chart"
Constantine Floropoulos : "on a different note....whats with the selloff today? any real volume backing it up? "
Matthew Graham : "considering we were consolidating around 2.75 not even 4 days ago, it's not a huge deal now (not today anyway, but as with any bounce, has the chance to become a longer-term move in the other direction. Point is, today's weakness isn't disconcerting in itself, yet)."
Christopher Stevens : "what sell off"
Christopher Stevens : "only 7 bps in mbs and 3 in 10Yr"
Stephen Mitroka : "I think people are still digesting this mornings data. Like poker, if you are confused the best play is to fold and stay another hand."
Hugh W. Page : "MG Looking at the 1 yr chart of FNMA 4.0 it looks like a technical "wedge" is forming. Seems to be a rising one but not sure. "
Christopher Stevens : "Wells pricing off a little over an 1/8th from yesterdays afternoon sheet and about even with their morning sheet. "
Hugh W. Page : "Just looked at Econ Calendar and realized we're not even 1/2 way thru our data dump today"
Matthew Graham : "there goes the ceiling in 10's. 2.5 minutes until potential early guesses on Chi PMI"
Matthew Graham : "looks like we're about to see a beat on Chi PMI"
Jason Anker : "thats one of the "early" numbers"
Victor Burek : "paid subscribers get the report early"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT INDEX 59.8 IN FEBRUARY (CONSENSUS 57.0) VS 59.6 IN JANUARY"