Today's calendar is less busy overall, compared to Tuesday, but offers a good mix of data and events. The only significant economic report of the day is New Home Sales, expected to come in at a 400k unit annual pace compared to 414k last month. Here's where 400k falls on a long term chart of New Home Sales.
Pretty depressing, but optimists can hope that we're on the verge of lifting off from this historical lower bound after an unprecedented length of time. Despite the long-term gravitas of housing data, it still runs the risk of being seen as less relevant due to weather-related impacts. Regardless of the legitimacy debate, this stuff matters simply because there's a debate and bond market trading tends to occur with a certain cognizance of what other players might be doing or thinking. In other words, even if you're a bond trader who doesn't agree the weather matters, people on the other side of your trades might disagree, and it behooves you to be inside their heads.
For this reason, bond markets have been seeking out a fairly epic amount of equilibrium by honing in on a long-term mid point that splits the distance between the highs and lows of the last 8 months. Put another way, since 10yr yields broke above 2.47, they've either generally been trading a range between there and 2.75, or from 2.75 to 3.05. Now in February, yields have been consolidating around 2.75 as a midpoint with the implication that they're ready to go back into either quadrant.
Intermediate technical indicators like the 21-day moving average that serves as the mid-point for the Bollinger Band study also show this same sort of 'orbiting' behavior in yields. In this chart, notice how different previous trading has been in 10yr yields as they spent most of their time either in the upper or lower sections but are now orbiting the mid-Bollinger line, trendless and waiting for the next move.
In addition to the data and trend-watching, there are two Treasury auctions today with the 2-yr Floating Rate Note at 11:30am. That's not a market mover for MBS, but the afternoon's 5yr Auction could be to some small extent. On a final note, there's Fed-speak from Rosengren. Anyone who's had a chance to see any of the transcripts from 2008 Fed meetings will be paying even more attention to Rosengren than they already were.
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