Bond markets begin the holiday-shortened still waiting for a reason to do anything but merely continue in the same mildly negative trend.  Said trend has carried rates moderately higher after an even bigger move lower throughout January. 

These two trends are pictured in the chart below.  At this point, we're waiting to find out which one is "the correction" to a larger preceding move.  Either the teal lines mark the correction to 2013's gigantic move higher or the yellow lines mark the first correction to the new 2014 downtrend marked by the teal lines.  If the former, then we're already back to the business of moving higher in rate.  If the latter, 10yr yields would need to avoid crossing the 2.79-2.84 gap seen in the second chart.

Treasury Trend Shift

Treasury Gap 2.79 - 2.84

Judging by the response seen to the FOMC Announcement in late January (i.e. "not much"), this 4-day week looks hard-pressed to offer much inspiration from scheduled events based on the fact that the release of the Minutes from that meeting is the heaviest hitter on the calendar (Wednesday at 2pm ET).  Apart from that, the economic data is light to moderate and concentrated primarily on the middle two days.

If there's a dud in terms of inspiration, it's today (Tuesday), followed closely by Friday.  Thursday--the only one without Housing-related data--is the busiest of the week with Jobless Claims, Consumer Prices, and the Philly Fed Survey.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
96-13 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
100-21 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
104-05 : +0-00
2 YR
0.3106 : -0.0084
10 YR
2.7284 : -0.0166
30 YR
3.6829 : -0.0171
Pricing as of 2/18/14 7:00AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 18
8:30 NY Fed manufacturing * Feb 9.00 12.51
10:00 NAHB housing market indx * Feb 56
Wednesday, Feb 19
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 397.2
8:30 Producer prices mm (%)* Jan 0.1 0.4
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Jan 0.950 0.999
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Jan 0.980 0.991
Thursday, Feb 20
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Jan 0.1 0.3
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 335 339
10:00 Philly Fed Business Index * Feb 8.0 9.4
Friday, Feb 21
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Jan 4.68 4.87