Today's combination of events is seen from time to time on the Thursday of slower weeks. One component is the first major appearance of economic data of the week. While we've had a few 3rd tier indicators so far, it's been nothing on the scale of Jobless Claims or Retail Sales. Even then, Jobless Claims and Retail Sales are nothing compared to, say, ISM data, let alone NFP, but the point is that they're the biggest fish in the current pond.
The other component in this combo pack is the week's final Treasury auction. Yesterday's 10yr issuance was borderline OK, with strong demand from foreign accounts and tepid-but-present demand from everyone else, albeit at rates close to 2.80. Today's 30yr auction could be even more challenging in terms of finding willing bidders, but that's part of the reason rates have risen so quickly--even if only a small part.
We'll actually get to see how much markets have been tensing up ahead of this auction cycle based on how they're behaving right after today's auction (1pm). Once the economic data and auction are over, Treasuries will have to contend with an increasingly negative technical landscape. That's just a fancy way of saying that bond markets are close to levels that math and science suggest could be milestones in a the next move higher.
Some of this math and science is in the chart below. Keep in mind that the rightmost orange mark (a 'candlestick' technically) is from early overnight trading and can change greatly by the end of the day. In short, we're just looking at several of the most mainstream technical studies suggesting further weakness. Perhaps most important today is the closing yield itself as it runs the risk of confirming a break above the 21-day moving average (also the center blue line). Such a confirmation would suggest an even more pronounced move higher.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
96-04 : +0-00
100-17 : +0-00
104-03 : +0-00
| Treasuries || |
0.3350 : -0.0120
2.7536 : -0.0094
3.6932 : -0.0288
| Pricing as of 2/13/14 7:00AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Thursday, Feb 13 |
|8:30 || Retail sales mm (%)* || Jan || 0.0 || 0.2 |
|8:30 || Initial Jobless Claims (k)* || w/e || 330 || 331 |
|13:00 || 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)* || || 16 || |