The afternoon turned out to be even less interesting than our already-discounted outlook suggested (see the Day ahead, particularly "That leaves the ADP Employment numbers in the morning as the day's biggest market mover"). Fannie 4.0s are currently drifting out at 103-06 and 10yr yields just over 2.99, both the same levels hit just after this morning's ADP data.
The 10yr yr auction and FOMC Minutes weren't helpful other than to confirm what we already know: rates are under pressure to go higher and the Fed is interested in carefully continuing to reduce asset purchases. The afternoon was really fairly uninteresting. By default, that redoubles the emphasis on Friday's NFP numbers. Same as it ever was...
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
| MBS || |
95-01 : -0-14
99-16 : -0-12
103-06 : -0-09
| Treasuries || |
0.4290 : +0.0360
2.9912 : +0.0542
3.8930 : +0.0110
| Pricing as of 1/8/14 4:27PMEST |
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
2:11PM : ALERT ISSUED: MBS and Treasuries at Weakest Levels; Very Faint Reprice Risk
10:33AM : Official News of G-Fee Hike Delay from FHFA
8:23AM : ADP Employment Stronger Than Expected, Bond Markets Weaker
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Victor Burek : "citi estimating 125k"
Matthew Graham : "The first NFP of the year tends to miss more than beat, and by an average (that's AVERAGE, mind you) of around 70k... "
Matthew Graham : "nothing crazy about a 125k forecast in that light. "
Ross Miller : "Anyone know how many hud counselors have to be included on the new counselor disclosure?"
Ira Selwin : "I don't believe there was a number given. "
Matt Hodges : "you all should watch the Olick vid in the news stream "Auction home tour: wildlife & some nasty stuff" i bought a one-off FC, brings back fond memories"
Matthew Graham : "10yr When-Issued trading at 3.007 heading into auction cut-off"
Matthew Graham : "That's essentially the "forecast" for the auction's high yield which will be reported in about 90 seconds."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. SELLS $21 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.009 PCT, AWARDS 21.49 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH "
Matthew Graham : "not too terrible, shouldn't prompt much more selling ahead of FOMC. There is something to be said for the symbolic nature of an auction stopping out over 3% though (first time in 2.5 years). "
Andy Pada, Jr. : "I feel like this recovery euphoria is similar to the "green shoots" zeitgeist of our recent past."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED MINUTES SHOW MANY FOMC MEMBERS WANTED TO 'PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY' IN FIRST CUT TO QE; USE 'MEASURED STEPS' "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FOMC WANTED TO AVOID TYING EVENTUAL RATE RISE TOO CLOSELY TO JOBLESS RATE ALONE -FED MINUTES "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- SOME PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONED APPROPRIATENESS OF QE3 REDUCTION IN TIME OF LOW INFLATION -FED MINUTES "
Matthew Graham : "Hodges wins with his uneventful call. Nothing new here. "
Ira Selwin : "I thought I read this morning: "First thing's first: FOMC Minutes probably aren't quite as serious as normal.""
|Time ||Event ||Period ||Actual ||Forecast ||Prior |
|Thursday, Jan 09 |
|8:30 || Initial Jobless Claims (k)* || w/e || || 335 || 339 |
|8:30 || Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k)* || w/e || || || 357.25 |
|8:30 || Continued jobless claims (ml)* || w/e || || 2.840 || 2.833 |