Production MBS are only 3 ticks down on the day at the moment, which belies the volatility seen so far. Some of that is evident in the pricing snapshot below, which shows Fannie 4.0s down 6 ticks at 11:05am, but they hit 103-10 earlier this morning. That weakness followed the much stronger-than-expected GDP and Jobless Claims releases, but there were mitigating factors for both of those reports.
Claims were somewhat discountable due to the Labor Department's own admission that seasonal adjustments were tough to apply due to the Thanksgiving Holiday and GDP was arguably less upbeat than the +3.6 percent growth suggested because almost half of it was due to inventory buildup.
With those "yeah buts" in mind, along with the technical landscape suggesting more of a sideways day today, bond markets have ratcheted back up from their lows, though they clearly haven't been interested in breaking into positive territory. Whatever the case, trading levels have been better than one might expect given the magnitude of the "beats" and the sideways drive reinforces the importance of tomorrows looming NFP.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 11:05 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
Bond Markets Trudge Back To Morning Levels; Close to Breaking Even
Following this morning's shake-up over the stronger-than-expected GDP and Jobless Claims data, bond market trading has proceeded in a rather uneventful fashion, but has slowly and steadily wound its way back in a more positive direction. Some of this has to do with the preexisting technical environment that we discussed in this morning's commentary
. The gist there was that bonds have sold-off sufficiently ahead of NFP and the default momentum today would be sideways.
The other factors were the counterpoints in both of this morning's data sets. GDP could be somewhat discounted due to inventory building and Claims due to seasonal factors (yes, claims are seasonally adjusted, but the Labor Department noted that the seasonal adjustments were difficult to apply due to the holiday).
Whatever the mix of those factors might be, they've certainly added up for steady retracement back toward unchanged levels. After being as low as 103-10, Fannie 4.0s are back within 1 tick of unchanged at 103-18. 10yr yields are only 1bp off unchanged at 2.8516.
ECON: Jobless Claims 298k vs 325k Forecast
- Previous week revised to 321k from 316k
- 4-week average fell to 322,250 from 333k
- Continued Claims 2.744 mln vs 2.82 mln forecast
- Continued claims lowest since Dec 2007
In the week ending November 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 321,000. The 4-week moving average was 322,250, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week's revised average of 333,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending November 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 23 was 2,744,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,765,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,796,500, a decrease of 32,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,829,000.
ECON: GDP Surges to 3.8 percent, but Inventory Buildup was Huge
- GDP +3.6 vs +3.0 forecast
- Consumer Spending +1.4, lowest since Q4 2009
- Business Inventory buildup added 1.68 to GDP
- Inventory change adds most to GDP since Q4 2011
- market reaction: A strong headline, but not without some "yeah buts." Bond markets seem to be conveying this with an initial spike into weaker territory followed by better support than we would typically expect based on the headline alone.
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that
is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). With this second estimate for the third quarter, the increase in
private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed
investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset
by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in
private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in state and local
government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in nonresidential
Bond Markets Weaker after Stronger GDP and Jobless Claims
The overnight session was straightforward. Nothing happened. 10yr yields spent almost the entire time between 2.84 and 2.83. No volume spikes, no volatility.
The sideways theme would have likely continued all day if this morning's data was close to consensus, but it wasn't. Initial Claims dropped to 298k vs a 325k forecast and GDP came in at a seemingly boomy 3.6 pct vs a 3.0 pct forecast.
Fannie 4.0s dropped a quick 6 ticks and are currently 8 ticks lower (0.25) on the day at 103-10. 10yr yields are doing battle with 2.87 after approaching the data at 2.848.
So far, MBS are holding inside yesterday's weakest levels, and although Treasuries are not, they are keeping inside 2.87 for now. There are some holes to be poked in the data as GDP drew plenty of strength from another inventory build-up. Consumer spending was also the weakest since the 4th quarter of 2009. On the Jobless Claims front, investors may be willing to discount the move a bit due to the expected seasonal hiring that takes place this time of year.
Combine all that with NFP coming up tomorrow and a fairly brisk selling trend since late November, and the damage thus far, is lighter than you might expect given the magnitude of the data "beats."
Live Chat Featured Comments
Ross Miller : "if 30% equity in the property can not be documented then both payments count and the borrower needs 6 months piti for both properties."
Ted Rood : "Doesn't it depend on equity in home that's being moved out of?"
Sung Kim : "question: reserves for a borrower departing a primary, 6 months on the departed residence AND 6 months on the new one?"
Ted Rood : "New home sales numbers based on contracts signed. Buyers sign first, apply for mortgages after....."
Jeff Anderson : "I was curious how the New Home Sales was up with mortgage apps down. Is it just rich people paying cash for new mcmansions? Just as the POTUS was talking about yesterday?"
Hugh W. Page : "That GDP print is not what it's all cracked up to be. Almost 1/2 of it was inventory stocking and Consumption dropped. So retailers are stocking up and consumers are spending less. Something tells me that GDP # is not repeating itself this quarter....."
Matthew Graham : "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/334385.aspx"
Andy Pada : "what is the gorilla reference?"
Matthew Graham : "hopefully we get in tomorrow morning to find it's just been a team of prankster acrobats manning a giant gorilla suit."
Hugh W. Page : "I think I might hear the Gorilla . . ."
Matthew Graham : "A few worthwhile 'yeah buts' for both reports"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 322,250 NOV 30 WEEK FROM 333,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 331,750) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 298,000 NOV 30 WEEK (CONSENSUS 325,000) FROM 321,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 316,000) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING +1.4 PCT, WEAKEST SINCE Q4 2009 (PREV +1.5 PCT); DURABLES +7.7 PCT (PREV +7.8 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q3 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE ADDS 1.68 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE, LARGEST CONTRIBUTION SINCE Q4 2011 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US PRELIM Q3 GDP +3.6 PCT, LARGEST SINCE Q1 2012 (CONSENSUS +3.0 PCT), PREV +2.8 PCT; FINAL SALES +1.9 PCT (CONS +2.0 PCT), PREV +2.0 PCT "
Andy Pada : "cnbc investigating how jobs number is calculated in light of NY post article"