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From MBS Commentary
MBS RECAP: Markets Offer No Sign of Pre-Yellen Tilt
MBS Day Ahead: Any Underlying Imbalances Will Surface Today
MBS RECAP: Data and Auction Pass Without Trace. Bring on Yellen
MBS Day Ahead: Why The First Reaction to Yellen Might Not Be...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About "The Range?"
Other Top Headlines
Cash Sales Retain Elevated Share of Market
Appraisal Trends; Fannie & Freddie - Never a Dull Moment
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways and That's Great!
Appraisal and Inventory Issues Complicate Existing Sales Numbers
New FEMA Proposal and Random Sample of Disaster Policies From...
How will the markets...
Is the Fed too erratic...
Fed's Kaplan: The...
Appraisal Issues Affecting Sales Numbers; New Loan App; Potentially Significant Price Trend Shift
The critical question unanswered here is whether there will be...
This is very informative.
Over $600,000,000,000 in outstanding MBS with coupons of 4% or...
Only a few times I am asked. Either right at the beginning -...
Not sure I would want a Doctor diagnosing my medical concerns...
Hi psuvp84.. Loan pricing, particularly for jumbo and investment...
Would it be wide to refi a rental property 30 yr fixed jumbo...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
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MBS RECAP: Significant Improvement Following Yellen Remarks
Nov 13 2013, 5:00PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Janet Yellen's prepared remarks for tomorrow's confirmation hearing were released at 4:30pm today. While there was little reason to expect a significant reaction in bond markets, we got one just the same. In fact, it was the only noticeable source of inspiration in an otherwise uninspired day.
The only problem is that nothing jumps off the page as the clear source of the positive reaction. The most insightful thing that could be said about it at the moment is that she doesn't mention a reduction in asset purchases, but what do markets expect the first question to be about at tomorrow's hearing?
Bottom line, Yellen said nothing she hasn't already said before, but the modicum of positivity was enough to send snowballs rolling wildly down the hill amid late session illiquidity. In plainer English, that means that trading levels are easier to push around at this time of day, and all it took was some unexpected strength to set off a chain reaction of forced buying.
The pricing snapshot below is outdated and Fannie 3.5s ended the day up 19 ticks at 101-04.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
96-21 : +0-12
100-29 : +0-11
104-08 : +0-10
106-24 : +0-10
97-21 : +0-12
101-28 : +0-13
105-01 : +0-10
107-08 : +0-11
96-08 : +0-13
100-19 : +0-12
103-29 : +0-10
106-14 : +0-09
Pricing as of 4:04 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
10yr Treasury Auction Preview
Treasury Auction Jargon Refresher
, if needed.
Today's 10yr auction is a "refunding" (as opposed to a "reopening"). Refundings historically average slightly lower demand (as measured by bid-to-cover or "BTC"). BTC's have recently been in the 2.5's with one exception at 2.86.
Refundings also tend to come in below the running forecast (as measured by "when-issued" yields or simply "WI"). WI is currently at 2.751, but the 1pm WI level is the benchmark against which the auction's high yield is judged.
10's have been improving for the past two days after hitting overnight high yields early yesterday morning. They'd typically build in a concession ahead of an action. The fact that they aren't could be an early hint at more latent positivity than we've seen so far. As such, if the auction is stronger than expected (i.e. BTC in the 2.6's or higher and yields below the 1pm WI), it would be a fairly optimistic commentary on the battle for support around 2.75%.
Positive Reprice Potential as MBS Gain More Than 3/8ths of a Point
Fannie 3.5s are now up just over 3/8ths of a point to 100-31. 10yr yields are at session lows, down 3.5bps in yield to 2.7311 despite the looming auction at 1pm (auctions tend to draw out a bit of preemptive bearishness as traders build in a concession for new supply). Some lenders may be considering a positive reprice if current levels are held or improved upon, but it's important to note that the trading range is fairly narrow. Most of these gains were intact during initial rate sheet print times.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
"Then it should be paid out on the HUD to the buyer's agent. Not charged to the buyer on the HUD and then paid by seller concession. No?"
"the buyer agreed to pay. these are common with FSBO's and some markets. its in the buyers best interest to have someone pay this and not them"
"Probably because the seller concession is supposed to benefit the buyer, not their agent?"
"having a debate about IPC's (Seller concession) - anyone have any info on why a Seller concession could not be used to pay a buyer agents comission shortage?"
"last major instance of Yellen-speak was about a month ago. She said there's some progress but more needs to be done to strengthen economy. "too many people still can't find a job." She noted need for vigorous debate followed by Fed uniting behind the decision. I don't feel like she's blindly in favor of QE, especially when she notes the importance of safeguarding the financial system and not undermining the recovery by letting inflation get out of hand. I wouldn't be surprised to see all of"
"I would think Yellen will spend some time defending the Feds easy monetary policy "
"10s were correct"
"illiquidity is all I got for now. 10's say it should bounce back. Could be nothing more than market making and position shuffling."
"What is cooking right now that is pushing MBS?"
Tom Schwab MLO-77107
: 1:41 PM - AMC
"agreed, not gonna happen"
"i wouldn't put any stock in that happening"
"Ok Guys...Question: What are the chances that HARP eligibility start dates will be extended beyond May, 31st 2009? Is there any talk of this happening? I have a client who financed in Dec of 2009 and could really use a HARP loan. Thanks!"
"medium low. We did have a relief rally--it just happened before the auction instead of after."
"MG, how is volume? I would think we'd have a nice relief rally after a strong 10 year auction, but it looks as if I'm wrong. "
"maybe now lenders will pass along some reprices"
"Solid A, but not an A+"
"RTRS- U.S. 10-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.70, NON-COMP BIDS $46.60 MLN "
"RTRS- U.S. SELLS $24 BLN 10-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 2.750 PCT, AWARDS 62.67 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH "
Amit Gandhi, MBA
"nice, I havent seen the charts this nice in the last week!"
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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View More at the Market Data Center
30 Yr FRM 3.41%
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.52%
30YR FNMA 4.5 109-04
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-21
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-14
Recent Housing Data:
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