If we take every price from every minute of MBS trading so far in October, the average Fannie 3.5 price is 101-26, precisely where it's coasting out this afternoon. Treasuries--while not currently at their average levels for the week (they're a bit weaker)--have clung to a narrow range between 2.59 and 2.66 for 99% of the trading, including overnight sessions. All of this flatness is symptomatic of the paralysis brought on by a lack of data. We discussed it this morning
, in greater detail.
When you're expecting to be bored because nothing is happening, when nothing ends up happening, there's not much else to say about it. On a cautionary note, even though the yet to be released employment data is far more meaningful than fiscal drama and shutdowns and debt ceilings, the initial reaction to the end of the shutdown risks acting as an occasion for snowball selling in bond markets, simply because of the safe-haven money parked here currently and the automatic sell-stops that could be triggered. When the data begins flowing again, it will melt any such snowballs and make it's own suggestions.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 4:04 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
Treading Water at Weakest Levels; Caution Warranted
If the lenders you deal with haven't been obviously cautious in their morning rate sheets then you probably should be as we head into the afternoon. We're right on the edge of the weakest levels of the day and it wouldn't take more than a tick or two of further weakness to noticeably increase negative reprice risk.
As it stands, we're probably already right on the edge of reprice risk, but that would depend heavily on the lender. Fannie 3.5s are down 9 ticks at 101-23. Risk becomes moderate between here and 101-20, and more serious if we move below that. Still holding for now, but only just.
10's are pushing up against a ceiling at 2.652, which they just broke for the first time in over an hour (by moving up to 2.654). Of course we've already discussed not reading too much in to this afternoon's movement, but in terms of negative reprice risk, this is the point at which we're going from "not concerned" to "possibly concerned."
Live Chat Featured Comments
Justin Heiden : "JM I have done one of these in the past. It was as easy as removing the equipment in the basement and capping the line into the house, provided that it is non-functioning. If it is functioning then you can move the well pump outside as opposed to inside of the house."
Hugh W. Page : "I do USDA loans but a well inside the house is a first for me. I have no idea"
Jason Zimmer : "JA - Plaza and Caliber are takin B2W"
john murphy : "Hey MBS'rs USDA question here, never seen this before..Is a well located INSIDE the house acceptable?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- KOCHERLAKOTA: KEEP STIMULUS IN PLACE EVEN IF ASSET BUBBLE CONCERNS RISE, INFLATION OUTLOOK GOES TEMPORARILY ABOVE 2 PCT "
Jason York : "we are. I think Pinnacle is"
Jason Anker : "sure but cant find an inv who will offer them as of right now"
Jason York : "you probably won't find too many people that have done them yet, as the borrower has to do a home counseling at least 30 days prior to app, and think most of just got wind of this in the first part of Sept"
Jason Anker : "2nd try" anyone have any luck with FHA Back to Work - who is taking them?"
Matthew Graham : "You can do something similar on advanced charts, but here's a quick sketch of what have been relevant pivots http://screencast.com/t/C7Uw4RjA8NaD"
Matthew Graham : "yeah, it's not really clearly delineated, but those work. You could also use 2.615 as a "modal" floor and 2.664 as a more recently relevant ceiling. Of course we've traded under 2.615, but it's been the most frequently visited inflection point at the low end of the range."
Andy Pada : "2.59 - 2.72?"
Andy Pada : "just to clarify, what is our range?"
Hugh W. Page : "Found it in a FAQ section in the hud portal. http://portalapps.hud.gov/FHAFAQ/controllerServlet?method=showPopup&faqId=1-6KT-879"
Jason Anker : "A borrower may be qualified for an FHA-insured mortgage on his/her own principal residence even if he/she is a non-occupying coborrower with a joint interest in a property being purchased by other family members as their principal residence with an FHAinsured mortgage"