Sometimes there are a lot of headlines and events to discuss, but this isn't one of those times. There's nothing new or meaningful to add beyond the generalities that have already been laid out, but we can revisit them briefly:
- bond markets are relatively paralyzed by uncertainty driven by lack of economic data
- having no Jobs report today is an abject realization regarding "lack of economic data"
- nothing else has moved markets in a meaningful way this week
- even the economic data that has moved markets (ADP and ISM) did so without disrupting the range
- the range remains intact this morning and nothing in the PM hours should be taken too seriously as liquidity has been awful after 12:30pm every day in October.
- waiting on shutdown to end so data can begin so Fed expectations can be traded
- it's just that simple (though there could be a token 'head-fake' into weaker territory depending on trading levels when the shutdown ends
- if we see such a head-fake, however, it would still be trumped by economic data, especially NFP, whenever we get that
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 11:09 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
Very Slow Morning Without NFP; Bond Markets Weaker Incidentally
First of all, volume has been every bit as excruciatingly slow as expected, both at home and abroad. The most important factor here is the absence of NFP (and most of next week's data for that matter). It's essentially reduced bond market trading to a passionless attempt at self-preservation rather than a venue for any sort of risk and reward based on economic fundamentals.
There's really nothing to observe at the moment. Treasuries were just slightly weaker in the first part of the overnight session, strengthened into the Asia/Europe hand-off, and have since traded a linear trend channel back toward weaker levels. All of this has taken place with little-to-no regard for equities markets or anything at all really. Again, traders are trying to run with the pack.
10's are currently up 2.3 bps at 2.6283 and Fannie 3.5 MBS are down 5 ticks at 101-26. Given yesterday's relative strength, today's weakness doesn't violate any range boundaries. There are no scheduled reports though there will be a few Fed speakers by the end of the day.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "A "no" vote indicates the statement was so far outside the realm of acceptability for that particular Fed member that they couldn't even reluctantly support the team's already agreed-upon decision"
Matthew Graham : "it doesn't quite work like that AB. They discuss and debate what to include in the statement, and the vote is on the statement only, not on what everyone thought they should have done."
Andrew Benson : "a "close call"? What's he talking about? 9-1 vote isn't close."
Dustin McAlister : "Well good, we deserve this current rate enviroment after the last few months, rather enjoying the flatness and small moves"
Victor Burek : "we are in current range til more data"
Dustin McAlister : "So at this point is it more stocks thatn anything that will move us the next few days, barring unforseen items in the news"
Matthew Graham : "nope, the BLS hasn't said one way or another"
Dustin McAlister : "so no one knows uf there is a no return point as far as date on releasing the report? "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FISHER: I PERSONALLY FEEL THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BUYING TREASURIES 'ISN'T THAT HIGH' AND COSTS ARE LARGE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED'S FISHER: THE DECISION NOT TO TAPER BOND-BUYING IN SEPTEMBER WAS A 'CLOSE CALL' "
Matt Hodges : "MG: you managed to make the Day Ahead interesting, despite lack of NFP. good job"
Jeff Anderson : "GM, all. The game is still closest without going over? I'll put my money on FPH. You can take DC, VB. GM, all."
FPH : "I'm predicting 000 for NFP this morning"