Posted
At going out levels the 5.5 is at 100-13+, 12 ticks up on the day but still 4 ticks below the highs.
The big winner today was treasuries which saw massive buying and are at all time low yields.
We are closing at levels we have not seen in a while, so locking today would not be a bad strategy. Tomorrow we get no economic reports, so our movement will be based on headlines, the dow and treasuries. Since treasuries today skyrocketed, they are due to sell off some. As they sell off, there is a good chance that mbs follow them but not to the same degree. Also, the Dow has been down the last 2 days pretty big, if it rallies tomorrow that could pull additional money out of bonds and fixed income. Third, Fridays have not been friendly to mbs over the last few months, so there is plenty of justification for locking tonight. On a positive note, we did close above the resistance level of 100-02 but we need to close above that level for 2 days for it to be conclusive. If we can hold these levels, lower rates could be just ahead. So, as always you need to weigh the risk of floating against what you can lock in today. It is always better to lock when you should have floated, then it is to float when you should have locked.
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