MBS MID-MORNING: Philly Fed Survey -39.3. MBS Stay Strong, but Tsy's still lead the way.

by Matthew Graham

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Current MBS Price and Day Over Day Change:

FN 5.5 30YR MBS = 100-15  .... +0-14 (14 ticks)

Philly Fed Survey:

• Down 39.3 versus prior reading of -37.5.  Worse than consensus of -35.0

Leading Indicators

• Down -.8% versus consensus of -.6%

So Far no appreciable reaction in MBS which had been trading in the 100-15 range previously.

Stocks are at 7833 in the Dow.  Oil remains around 50 bucks a barrel.  Tsy's continue to be much better bid than MBS, so be wary of a turn around today damaging good gains in MBS.

If you are in a short term position, we're waiting for a majority of this AM's gains to be priced in and then we'll consider taking those gains as we are at the top of our 1 month trading range.  However, if we manage to close above our topside resistance, it could bode well for things to come.  Stay tuned...  Looks like a potentially bumpy ride over the next few days.