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From MBS Commentary
MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Still About Stocks and "The Range"
MBS RECAP: Much Weaker After Data, but Still in Same Old Range
MBS Day Ahead: First and Only Major Econ Data of The Week
MBS RECAP: Bonds Pull Back to Unchanged After Speculative Surge
MBS Day Ahead: Downtrend Taking Shape; Focusing on Stocks and...
Other Top Headlines
Legal and Regulatory Update; Credit Risk Transfers; 2016 Non...
Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs
Carson will "Examine" FHA Premium Cut
Primer on HUD and Carson Testimony, Thoughts on MIP Cut, and...
Mixed Bag For Mortgage Rates Amid Market Volatility
BAC CEO: Rates should...
BAC CEO: Dodd-Frank in...
Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs; Carson to "Examine" FHA Premium Cut
Danged consumers! First they borrowed recklessly, igniting the...
Michelle, you touch on something very important: the value of...
Larry, the fallout of contracts have nothing to do with the lender...
My hope is that Carson is more concerned with being liked by...
WN, making it mandatory to provide upfront U W before the borrower...
and this is why our owner Casey Crawford and Toby Harris at Movement...
I've had several buyers cancel contracts after home inspections...
Looking at the top 10 Metros for change in starter homes sales...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
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MBS RECAP: Week Begins Calmly Before Impending Storm
Jul 29 2013, 5:06PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
It's no secret by now that Wednesday through Friday of this week bring an exceptionally heavy load of economic data and events, collectively carrying the potential to move markets as much as they've moved in recent memory. It's also commonly known that Wednesday is the day after tomorrow. As such, markets are taking their sweet time ramping up activity levels with today's session being almost entirely a 'dud.' There was mild movement in MBS, but the range was exceptionally small and no lender reprices were reported. Pending Home Sales did little to motivate any noticeable movement, but perhaps helped trading levels stay range-bound as it suggested rising rates are indeed taking a toll on the housing market (not "new news" in that sense, but another piece of evidence to add to a recently growing body). After that data, the day was essentially done. MBS dipped slightly into the 1pm hour as Treasuries came under some pressure from corporate rate-lock selling, but held ground at the lows and returned to near-unchanged levels into the final hour.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
96-31 : -0-03
100-27 : -0-02
103-27 : +0-00
105-29 : +0-01
97-31 : -0-05
101-28 : -0-03
104-10 : -0-01
106-03 : +0-01
96-20 : -0-03
100-18 : -0-02
103-21 : +0-00
105-12 : +0-05
Pricing as of 4:04 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
More on Earlier Bout of Weakness: Corporate Credit Markets
We've discussed "corporate rate-lock selling" in the past as a source of Treasury-specific pressure. This occurs when a firm is issuing a corporate bond (taking in investment that they'll then make payments on at a rate that usually involves a benchmark like 10yr Treasuries + a margin. In a fixed rate offering, the firm may "lock in" its cost of funding by selling Treasuries.
This means they've given up the right to earn today's interest rates in exchange for cash. If prices fall and rates move higher between the time their bond offering is priced and the time it's fully subscribed , they'll have already sold at the price highs, offsetting any fall in prices and effectively "locking in" the rate at which they'll be repaying the investors in their newly issued offering.
Here's more from Reuters on today's potential rate-lock selling. (This weakness has mostly worked it's way through the market and MBS are back near unchanged levels):
(Reuters) - Prices of U.S. Treasuries slipped on Monday as corporate issuers launched deals to try to lock in rates ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy statement and key U.S. employment report, traders said.
Dan Heckman, senior fixed income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Kansas, Missouri, said the market would likely trade "in a pretty tight range" unless Friday's employment report "is incredibly weak" and persuades market participants that the Fed won't begin to cut back on its bond purchases until December."
Currently, many participants believe the U.S. central bank will begin to trim the bond purchases that partly comprise its quantitative easing policy in September.
Energy names dominated the U.S. high-grade primary market on Monday in a week estimated to see $15 billion to $20 billion in corporate issuance. Most of the deals are expected to get done before the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday and the jobs number on Friday, said IFR, a Thomson Reuters company.
Selling Pressure and Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
Treasuries are leading a charge into weaker territory for MBS. While 10yr yields are well into their highs of the day now at 2.602, Fannie 3.5 and 4.0 MBS are just now falling in line with their low prices on the day. There is not enough of a gap in prices between rate sheet print times and current levels to justify reprice risk for most lenders, but some might be getting close if we hold here or move any lower.
Fannie 4.0s are 3 ticks off their highs at 103-25+ and Fannie 3.5s are 5 ticks off their highs at 100-23.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
"i don't think the Fed knows the number"
"I can understand the WH getting it the night before... but a few days. I don't know."
"I would imagine the fed already knows the number"
"no doubt - quiet before the storm. I still find it odd the Fed is releasing a decision BEFORE NFP. That's how the calendar plays out, I know. But imagine the number doesn't remotely support their arguments, one way or another. Unless they are already privvy... which they may be. I don't know the timing on that"
"wednesday - friday should be a lot more interesting"
"kind of a boring day today in the mbs markets"
"genworth seems fine. it is UGI that is tricky"
"is Genworth typically one of the MI companies not supported by most lenders under HARP?"
"one thing we know for sure is rates will move quickly"
"It could be a really good or really bad "
"I was just looking at it and thinking the same thing Bert"
"that econ calendar is pretty crazy this week, make or break week for rates I think"
"np. Pretty well-balanced too. Probably more being originated into 4.0s but anything 4.125 and under has to go into 3.5s and 4.25% can as well, but can also go into 4.0s."
"Both matter at the moment."
"does secondary currently put more weight on the fannie 3.5 for potential reprices? are 4.0's factored in also?"
"Plug in the state and county here https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicost1.cfm"
"ok, thanks. I have a potential borrower in Ulster County, NY and he wants 95% to 445k loan. I tol dhim max is 417k to 87% based on purchase price."
"county loan limits restrict FHA loan sizes"
"FHA question, if the max loan limit for a county is less than 417k, does that mean a borrower cant get a FHA 30 yr fixed loan for 417k? "
Hugh W. Page
"You're right. QE continues. Any significant reduction in QE beyond reduction in debt has a high likelihood of crashing the market IMO."
"like if supply drops 10%, they reduce 10%"
"you never know how the bond market will react once tapering starts, we saw a glimpse of it already in May and June"
"I still think fed wont taper in Sept, but if they do, it will be somehow tied to the lower new debt issuance"
"quite possibly, it would be like they are buying the same share"
"so what would it mean if the the supply is roughly $20B less per month. Does this take the sting out of any taper?"
"I think the auction sizes were the same last quarter and this quarter"
"seems like the Treasury did not issue a lot of debt (relatively) in the second quarter. Am I reading that correctly?"
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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View More at the Market Data Center
30 Yr FRM 4.12%
15 Yr FRM 3.33%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.18%
30YR FNMA 4.5 107-22
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-00
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-00
Recent Housing Data:
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